Final WSOP hand from last night

[gumpzilla]

There is some discussion of this in the WPT forum, but it's the WPT forum, so I thought I'd put it here and see what people think about Black's laydown. From Cardplayer:

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Gregory Rice goes all in under the gun, preflop for his last $200,000. Andrew Black reraises to $350,000. Mike Matusow calls. The flop comes 10-9-7 rainbow. Black checks. Matusow comes up firing for $450,000, and Black folds pocket Queens face up. Matusow flips over 10-10 for top set. Rice shows J-5. The turn is a 5, and the river is a Jack, giving him a very cruel two pair on the river. Rice is eliminated, and Matusow is sitting on $5,104,000 in chips.

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Black's ending chip count was 2.09 million, meaning he started the hand with 2.44 million if this is correct; Matusow must have had something like 4 million at the beginning of the hand. Blinds were 20k-40k with a 5k ante, from what I can tell.

Thoughts?

[durron597]

Matusow made a play like "I have TT. TT is a good hand. I call."

He's not *that* deep.

[Baloosh]

I like the laydown. There's no reason to get involved into an empty side pot (or very very small one) when one of the chipleaders is announcing he's got a monster and willing to bet into an empty side pot just to get your chips too. Even with an overpair, I like this fold.

I can't say that I'd do the same thing with Aces, but I can see folding Kings and Queens to move up one more spot. He's got to know Matusow is winning the main pot. If I had Aces, I'd have probably gotten all the money in pre-flop, and we'd be 3-way until the river.

[davidross]

When I read this last night I thought it must be a mis-print. If the details are correct he had an amazing read on Matusow. Wouldn't Matusow make that play with AT or almost anything? As a big stack he wouldn't mind them staying at 28 players for a while so I don't think I could have laid down Q's. Great laydown.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
When I read this last night I thought it must be a mis-print. If the details are correct he had an amazing read on Matusow. Wouldn't Matusow make that play with AT or almost anything? As a big stack he wouldn't mind them staying at 28 players for a while so I don't think I could have laid down Q's. Great laydown.

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Mike Matusow does not call a raise/reraise sequence with AT. No way. I'm putting him on AA-TT, AK, and when he bets this particular flop after I check with an all in player, I think the fold is relatively easy.

However, I think Black needs to bet the flop himself.

[durron597]

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Wouldn't Matusow make that play with AT

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I sincerely doubt it. Not after an allin and a reraise. What is he putting the reraiser on?

Matusow's hand range is AA-99, AK preflop, and AA-99 post flop. The only hand QQ beats in that range is JJ, so since QQ is significantly behind the range it's an easy muck.

[2planka]

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If the details are correct he had an amazing read on Matusow.

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Which is precisely why I don't like the face-up fold. Good laydown, but why spill the beans?

[durron597]

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However, I think Black needs to bet the flop himself.

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Why? To prevent giving a free card to AK? Against Matusow's range, QQ is a huge dog on that flop.

[ZootMurph]

First, they need to eliminate one more player to end play for the evening. Second, the side pot is at 300k. Finally, Matusow bets 450k into the 300k sidepot and he is the chip leader with over 4M at this point.

Taking these things into consideration, the majority of players would not even consider betting into that sidepot without a monster hand. Matusow could conceivably have TT, 99, 77, or even J8s or 86s. If he's bluffing at the sidepot, let him have it. But there is NO reason to believe he is bluffing at it when there is a player on the line to be eliminated to end the day. Since he would probably have pushed allin with AA or KK, and wouldn't have gotten involved in an allin situation with J8 or 86, then that leaves TT, 99 or 77 he's working with. You can probably rule out 99 and 77 as he may be up against a bigger set and would be happy to check down. Lastly, as chip leader are those 300k chips so necessary to his stack that he'd bet at it with anything less than top set? No, they aren't. It seems obvious from this thought process that he's on TT.

[durron597]

Zootmurph - I think he would bet at it with AA. Maybe KK, I'm not sure.