Stupid chasing or good agressive play?

[Redd]

Yeah, to be honest I just glanced at the bottom part of my cheat sheet, where the odds of completing the turn vary from like 2.5:1 to 1.6:1. If we're saying 12 outs, he's actually 2.8:1 to improve, n'est pas? Like I said, there's only value in it if all 3 will stay in; but I think your numbers are much better.

[topspin]

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Yeah, to be honest I just glanced at the bottom part of my cheat sheet, where the odds of completing the turn vary from like 2.5:1 to 1.6:1. If we're saying 12 outs, he's actually 2.8:1 to improve, n'est pas? Like I said, there's only value in it if all 3 will stay in; but I think your numbers are much better.

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Yes, 46/12 - 1 = 2.83. He needs 3 people to stay in for value (since we probably can't convince a fraction of a user to stick around [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]), which he is just barely getting if no one folds. Even if no one folds, it's almost breakeven, and we might slow BB down if he just has an overpair to the board. In such cases, I'd prefer to raise the river if we hit our hand, since we'll be collecting 2BB each if we hit -- i.e. we get to push a much larger equity edge later by foregoing a small one here.

[TheKentock]

I see no reason to call. You missed your draws, and king high will win roughly 0% of the time against two opponents. So I doubt you have odds.

[Kumubou]

Pre-flop is... ok. With three limpers and position I am willing to gambool.

You need to cap this flop. You have a one card OESD (but isn't very vurlnerable to other one-card holdings, at least) and a BDFD, so you have nine outs with 4 players in for three bets. You have an equity edge here, jam it.

The turn play is ugly. You know you have king high, right? You have a metric ton of outs to a strong hand (9 clubs plus the 3 non-club 4s and 9s, but the 9s give anyone with a T a bigger straight, so meh), but there is only one card to come. With four people left, I guess this is a really thin value bet, but once the BB 3-bets and UTG is out of the hand, you need to slow down.

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The river card came A .
Now my question is do I just fold here or do I make a crying call? If call, why?

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Fold, because you have king high (and busted straight and flush draws). The BB has been acting like he has a hand, and I am inclined to believe him.

-K

[flyangler]

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Yeah, to be honest I just glanced at the bottom part of my cheat sheet, where the odds of completing the turn vary from like 2.5:1 to 1.6:1. If we're saying 12 outs, he's actually 2.8:1 to improve, n'est pas? Like I said, there's only value in it if all 3 will stay in; but I think your numbers are much better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, 46/12 - 1 = 2.83. He needs 3 people to stay in for value (since we probably can't convince a fraction of a user to stick around [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]), which he is just barely getting if no one folds. Even if no one folds, it's almost breakeven, and we might slow BB down if he just has an overpair to the board. In such cases, I'd prefer to raise the river if we hit our hand, since we'll be collecting 2BB each if we hit -- i.e. we get to push a much larger equity edge later by foregoing a small one here.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, if I am understanding this, and much of it is going right over my head I think...

the turn re-reraise is not good value unless all the parties still alive at this point call. Right? Since I am only 2.83 to 1 to hit a nut hand, if there is one folder and only one caller then I am only improving the pot by 2BB? 2.83 > 2
Therefore wait to see if my hand hits before trying to get that last bet in?

[Rev. Good Will]

PF - not for me, but its kosher
flop - nice
turn - I like slowing down, especially after that flop 3bet. I 'm with everyone who says you K outs suck, cause they do

[Rev. Good Will]

nahh man, drop that hand like it has scabes

[topspin]

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the turn re-reraise is not good value unless all the parties still alive at this point call. Right? Since I am only 2.83 to 1 to hit a nut hand, if there is one folder and only one caller then I am only improving the pot by 2BB? 2.83 > 2

[/ QUOTE ]

Something like that. You will win ~26% of the time. Suppose 1 person folds, so there are only 3 of you left. You each contribute 1SB, for a total increase of 3SB to the pot. Your share is 3/4 = 0.75SB.

To gain that 0.75SB, you put in 1SB. Therefore the EV of your action was -0.25SB and you lost money.

Conversely, suppose there were 5 of you that called a bet on the turn. Then 5SB would go in, and you would get 5/4 = 1.25SB share of it, for which you paid 1SB, for a net gain of +0.25SB.

That's the sort of calculation people mean by pot equity.

[topspin]

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The river card came A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Now my question is do I just fold here or do I make a crying call? If call, why?

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That depends. How often do you think BB caps the flop, turn, and leads the river with Q-high? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[flyangler]

Something like that. You will win ~26% of the time. Suppose 1 person folds, so there are only 3 of you left. You each contribute 1SB, for a total increase of 3SB to the pot. Your share is 3/4 = 0.75SB.

To gain that 0.75SB, you put in 1SB. Therefore the EV of your action was -0.25SB and you lost money.

Conversely, suppose there were 5 of you that called a bet on the turn. Then 5SB would go in, and you would get 5/4 = 1.25SB share of it, for which you paid 1SB, for a net gain of +0.25SB.

That's the sort of calculation people mean by pot equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is basically what I was trying to say in my primative way. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
Why are you referring to the turn bets as SB? Aren't they BB?
This has been a VERY enlightening conversation. thanks to everyone who has contributed so far!