PP100NL - stacking off w/bottom 2 on flop

[BobboFitos]

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Your third raise actually needs to be a bit larger.

If it's a bit larger it's an easy push on any safe turn. Any [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] aside from the 6 and it's tricky. I'd give less credit to a straight card so you might have to push into the nuts. If 9 pairs you still could have best hand vs draw but it might be a good time to release.

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What would you raise it to? Raising the pot would make it 22 with $75 left behind, so a turn push would be 1.5x the pot. Raising 1.5x the pot on the flop would be to 30, so if he calls that my turn push would then be exactly the pot. The latter sounds about like what you're going for.

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Yes, sounds good.

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If I took this line I'd certainly push on any of the straight cards, I'd probably give up on a diamond, and I'm not sure what I'd do on a 9. If he flat-calls a raise to 30 on the flop, doesn't that make his hand look more like a draw than a pair?

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Yes, I said you'd have to push on a straight card even if it means pushing into the nuts
this is because there are too many straight cards to pin point his exact hand.

Yeah, if he flatcalls the 30 it's basically saying he'll go all in, as with a big draw he'll have odds on the turn. A draw moving in after you've put in a 3rd raise from the blind can not expect good fold equity, except against your exact hand. And even then I'm not sure getting the price you are letting go of bottom two is correct.

[coltrane]

hi ethan,

contrary to what everyone's telling you, the flop is not the place to play this hand....with these stack sizes (relative to the pot), call his mini-raise and then lead out for the full pot on a safe turn card....his action there will reveal the true nature of his hand....

[ethan]

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If you're that scared, don't even bet a flop.

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"Scared" might not have been the right word for me to use. What I meant was that there were very few "safe" turn cards, not that I'm going to check-fold to half of the deck.
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I know you're trying to rationalize your line here, but I say call the raise and lead out at ANY (non-nine) turn. If the opponent raises you there also, you can be done with the hand.

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If I were just trying to rationalize my play I wouldn't have bothered posting. This isn't a "look at this awesome hand I played!" post. My reads of his hand are those I had in mind while it was being played out. And yes I realize that my line's not great, in particular because if there's betting past the flop I'm probably looking at a tough decision.
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You are either way ahead or way behind here; I don't see an opponent re-opening the betting with just a flush draw.

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Note that it's difficult for him to have "just a flush draw", there'll overcards/pair/straight possibilities with just about any diamonds he could have. When he pushes, he could have any of these

6s 3h 486 49.09 504 50.91 0 0.00 0.491
8d 7d 504 50.91 486 49.09 0 0.00 0.509

6s 3h 647 65.35 343 34.65 0 0.00 0.654
Qd Jd 343 34.65 647 65.35 0 0.00 0.346

6s 3h 448 45.25 534 53.94 8 0.81 0.457
Ad 6d 534 53.94 448 45.25 8 0.81 0.543

6s 3h 2 0.20 988 99.80 0 0.00 0.002
9s 9c 988 99.80 2 0.20 0 0.00 0.998

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I think that re-raise was out of fear and as a result you ended up playing a far bigger pot than you wanted to. You might've won if Villain is bad enough to re-re-re-raise an overpair here, but I can't see what hand you beat that min-raises and then raises all in.

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If I had a big draw in MP3's position, I'd certainly consider the line he took (albeit with a bigger flop raise). Same if I had a set. He's laggier than I am, which is why I included the top-pair/weak overpair hands as possibilities. They're not the ones I see as most likely.

[ethan]

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If I took this line I'd certainly push on any of the straight cards, I'd probably give up on a diamond, and I'm not sure what I'd do on a 9. If he flat-calls a raise to 30 on the flop, doesn't that make his hand look more like a draw than a pair?

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Yes, I said you'd have to push on a straight card even if it means pushing into the nuts
this is because there are too many straight cards to pin point his exact hand.

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I phrased that poorly. I was only referring to what I'd do if a 9 hit.

It puts any flush draw with the 6d ahead of me, and gives the others 3 more outs per card they have above 6. I'm still ahead of 7d8d, albeit only 55/45. Against the other flush draws (4d5d, QdJd) I'm ahead about 70/30. I'm drawing dead against trips, and behind 90/10 against an overpair. I assume a set would have pushed the flop, but I have 4 outs against 333 and 2 to a chop against 666.

If I check the turn he'll likely take the free card with a draw and bet hands that beat me. (The one exception would be a draw trying to represent trips and move me off an overpair.)

Man. I don't know where I'm going with this. I started this reply hoping I'd come up with something insightful about what to do on a 9, and it just hasn't hit me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[greg nice]

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hi ethan,

contrary to what everyone's telling you, the flop is not the place to play this hand....with these stack sizes (relative to the pot), call his mini-raise and then lead out for the full pot on a safe turn card....his action there will reveal the true nature of his hand....

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bingo

[Triumph36]

Your raises are out of fear, though. You're not trying to get a read on what the opponent has, and in fact, he could have a large range of hands, as you outline. You were afraid to take a free card because you didn't want to face 'tough' decisions, and ended up facing a more difficult one anyway. As coltrane (and I) have said, I think you can confidently fold your hand if you lead out on the turn and he raises. If he calls the turn, you can assume he's on the diamond draw or something like top pair, and yes, you will face a tough river decision.

I'd have to have something like X6 of diamonds to consider the line he took with a draw. Maybe a LAG pushes with the 78 diamonds, but this is an unlikely hand even given his range of hands.

[ethan]

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hi ethan,

contrary to what everyone's telling you, the flop is not the place to play this hand....with these stack sizes (relative to the pot), call his mini-raise and then lead out for the full pot on a safe turn card....his action there will reveal the true nature of his hand....

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bingo

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Yea, I'm liking this more and more, especially after spending so much time pondering how the turn'd go if he just calls me on the flop.

Your original post of "this can't be good" is just about verbatim what went through my head when he pushed. Well, maybe "Uh-oh. This can't be good. I should post this hand...1.6:1 is good enough. *call*"

[BobboFitos]

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.1.6:1 is good enough. *call*"

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results?

[ethan]

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.1.6:1 is good enough. *call*"

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results?

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K9o, no diamond, and an addition to my buddy list. It's always nice to know that no matter how soft I'm making the Party 100NL, someone's making it softer.