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  #1  
Old 02-13-2005, 04:59 PM
ethan ethan is offline
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Location: los angeles
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Default bottom set facing 2 all-ins. Odds to call?

Party 30+3, about 15 hands in.

MP probably plays his made hands a little more strongly than he should but nothing too ridiculous. If he's calling a re-re-re-raise all-in, let's give him credit for KJ. No read on SB. At best, I'm against two made straights or a straight and a flush draw.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter

saw flop

SB (t1171)
BB (t755)
UTG (t212)
UTG+1 (t835)
MP1 (t1057)
MP2 (t565)
Hero (t1600)
CO (t1070)
Button (t735)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t120) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t30</font>, BB calls t30, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t175</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t425</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t1141 (All-In)</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls t852 (All-In), Hero...

My equity:
vs KJ and QT: 11%
vs KJ and J8: 35% (30-31% if either of them is suited in spades)
vs KJ and KQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]: 31%
vs KJ and TT: 5%

There's also the miniscule chance that I'm up against something wacky like A5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and QJ, but I don't think that happens often enough to matter here.

I'm getting 3.5:1 on my call. I need to win about 29% of the time to make this +chipEV. The side pot with the SB would be fairly small (228 chips including the ones I'd put in), but of the two it's more possible he has a flush draw or 2 pair. I stand to win a little more often against him than I do against MP, so I can probably bump that 29% down to 26-27% or so. If I call and win I have over 3000 chips and 3x the next stack, and I've been feeling good about my big-stack play as of late. If I call and lose I'm left with about 450, which is certainly playable at 15/30 blinds. If I fold, I'm left with 1150 and I'm second in chips behind whoever takes down this pot.

Is this a call? If not, what odds would you need? Also, how's my reraise on the flop?
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  #2  
Old 02-13-2005, 05:32 PM
11t 11t is offline
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Posts: 283
Default Re: bottom set facing 2 all-ins. Odds to call?

I think your problem here is your flop decision to re-raise. There several playable hands that are forcing you to draw to boats on this board, and there are many draws that are ahead of you. I have a feeling you are crushed since it is probably top 2 pair vs straight and you are now drawing to the butt end of a sinking boat.

The min bet by the SB screams "nuts" and he is tryiing to get some action. Folding a set is hard, and I don't know if I could have done it to the original bet/raise. Re-raising here though is not a good play imo, because you have just given youself odds to call with a beaten hand. I could easily toss it having called the raise by MP1 then having the SB push. If this sounds weak, it is but going over the top of 2 raisers with a bottom set vs one definite better hand and one that could potentially hold your outs isn't a smart move. If I thought filling up would win you the hand then calling might not be a bad move but there are many times you will be drawing to quads on a board like this.

If all the players had their cards face up and I KNEW SB had q-xs and mp1 had KJ then I might contemplate a call since I have already invested so much with the over the top raise on the flop. However I would never call no matter what the odds were if I thought it was QT vs KJ which I feel is the most likely scenario.
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  #3  
Old 02-13-2005, 06:55 PM
ethan ethan is offline
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Default Re: bottom set facing 2 all-ins. Odds to call?

[ QUOTE ]
I think your problem here is your flop decision to re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I'll try to explain that one.

I have 1600 chips and set, I'm not folding to the initial flop action. I don't care if the board's J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

When it's 175 to me the best I'm giving anyone credit for is AQ. They might have more, but I don't have any reason to assume they do. Their range of hands is huge. There are so many pair+draw/draw/2-pair/tptk hands in addition to the hands I'm behind. I think there's an argument to be made for flat-calling the flop to see what the SB does, but there is the fact that I don't want to see about half the deck on the turn. I definitely don't like a fold the first time action comes to me on the flop.

If I flat call, the SB reraises and MP1 pushes it's a clear fold. That's basically the argument for the call. But if I call the flop and so does SB, then I'm left in an ugly spot on the turn. (600 in pot, they'd each have about 8-900 behind with me covering them.)

If a spade, K, J, or 8 comes on the turn, the SB checks and MP1 bets I have to fold because of the threat of a check-raise. If instead SB bets and MP1 calls I may have a call as well, depending on the odds being given to me. But how about on a blank turn? If it blanks and MP1 bets into me, I still can't be too happy calling with the SB acting behind me. I don't think he'd flat-call the flop with a hand that beat me, but there's some chance he would call the flop waiting for a "safe" turn to get his chips in. That's particularly plausible given that he'd be in perfect position to check-raise there. So, if I flat-call I'm basically hoping for 1 of 2 things: SB re-re-raise and MP1 push, or SB call and everyone checks to me on the turn. I see the second as happening about 0.5% of the time, but the first's much more likely. I'm just not sure it's likely enough to be best.

My re-raising the flop makes them define their hands, and it prevents me from having to act between MP1 and SB on the turn. I suppose I could raise less, although my raise here is only about 1/2 pot. The above reasoning is basically what made me raise the flop. (At the time it was simplified to "let's see how much they like those hands because I don't want to be clueless on the turn.")

Damn. I should have posted this hand in 2 parts.
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  #4  
Old 02-13-2005, 07:02 PM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 27
Default Re: bottom set facing 2 all-ins. Odds to call?

That analysis is absolutely right, and why a flop flat call is baaaaaaad.

I like the reraise and I don't mind the fold, although sometimes the SB will turn out to be a moron and sometimes they'll both have 2 pair, pair+draw, etc. No big deal; most of the time the fold is good and in the rest your equity isn't all THAT big.

A better question is if you could get away from this with 1K chips to start. I don't think so, unfortunately.
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  #5  
Old 02-13-2005, 07:11 PM
11t 11t is offline
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Default Re: bottom set facing 2 all-ins. Odds to call?

Very true, I don't think re-raising on the flop is necesarilly bad but I just think that you have now invested quite a bit of money into a pot that you are very very far behind in.

You made them define their hands and they did, you are beat. If I thought that filling up would win, I would call, but I do not think it will.
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  #6  
Old 02-13-2005, 07:39 PM
ethan ethan is offline
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Location: los angeles
Posts: 237
Default Re: bottom set facing 2 all-ins. Odds to call?

[ QUOTE ]
That analysis is absolutely right, and why a flop flat call is baaaaaaad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome. I was really hoping it was, because I sure had myself convinced.

[ QUOTE ]
I like the reraise and I don't mind the fold, although sometimes the SB will turn out to be a moron and sometimes they'll both have 2 pair, pair+draw, etc. No big deal; most of the time the fold is good and in the rest your equity isn't all THAT big.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious what my best decision would be here if the percentages worked out to give calling and folding exactly the same chipEV. (I think it's probably slightly negative to call here, but not by a lot.) That'd mean:

Call:
29%: I have 4000 chips. Next biggest stack is 1000 and we're 7-handed. Good times.
71%: I have 450 chips. We're 8-handed. doubling-up will essentially tie me for second in chips, and the blinds aren't going to make me desperate for another 15 hands. Not terrible, but not great.

Fold:
100%: I have 1150 chips and am in second, with plenty of time to maneuver. Furthermore, since I think MP1 is ahead of SB here there's a good chance most of the chips will be just to my right in the hands of someone who overplays TPGK. This last bit is actually something that just occurred to me, but it seems like it might actually be fairly important with the percentages so close.

[ QUOTE ]

A better question is if you could get away from this with 1K chips to start. I don't think so, unfortunately.

[/ QUOTE ]

With 1000, assuming I play the flop the same until I have to call all-in I'm looking at 4.7:1. I need to win 18% for +chipEV. You're right, there's no way I can fold when it comes back to me there.
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  #7  
Old 02-13-2005, 08:12 PM
AtticusFinch AtticusFinch is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 620
Default Re: bottom set facing 2 all-ins. Odds to call?

[ QUOTE ]
If I thought that filling up would win, I would call, but I do not think it will.

[/ QUOTE ]


Haven't you been reading Lori's posts? Just river quads.

But seriously folks, I don't mind the way you played it, but I think you have to lay it down. Whether I'd have the discipline to fold it myself at the table is an open question [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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  #8  
Old 02-13-2005, 11:54 PM
ethan ethan is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: los angeles
Posts: 237
Default results:

I thought for awhile, then called. I was certain MP1 had a straight, and I thought the SB could just have too many hands that weren't top 2 or a set. If I'd had the odds in front of me at the time I'd have folded, but I suppose that's what this board's for. I'm not sure whether results-oriented thinking would make me happy or sad on this one [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I got 3.5:1 as a 2:1 dog, but it didn't pan out.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">SB (t1171)</font>
BB (t755)
UTG (t212)
UTG+1 (t835)
<font color="#C00000">MP1 (t1057)</font>
MP2 (t565)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t1600)</font>
CO (t1070)
Button (t735)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t120) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t30</font>, BB calls t30, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t175</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t425</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t1141 (All-In)</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls t852 (All-In), Hero calls t716.

Turn: (t3459) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t3459) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t3459
<font color="#009B00">Main Pot: t3231 (t3231), between SB, MP1 and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="#FFFFFF">Pot won by MP1 (t3231).</font>
<font color="#009B00">Pot 2: t228 (t228), between SB and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="#FFFFFF">Pot won by SB (t228).</font>

Results below:
SB has 8h Jc (straight, queen high).
MP1 has Js Kc (straight, king high).
Hero has 9c 9h (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: MP1 wins t3231. SB wins t228.
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  #9  
Old 02-14-2005, 11:35 AM
rachelwxm rachelwxm is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: nj
Posts: 288
Default Re: bottom set facing 2 all-ins. Odds to call?

As long as you are not against a better set, you get odds to call the allin. TT might be, QQ unlikely.
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