PP 7 handed 15/30 flop decision

[stigmata]

I'm not sure what I'm missing here. Surely you have to raise this.

Either you get value (if CO calls) or a free card (if CO folds). If CO folds then you have the option of semi-bluffing the turn depending on your read of the SB.

The only reason I wouldnt raise, is if SB is one of those LAGs who defends vicously against a free card by doing a stop-n-go.

[stoxtrader]

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a raise also cuts your implied odds for when you do hit your hand on later streets.

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please dont get me started on this again. implied odds, while exhistent, are entirely irrelevant concerning your flop action.

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see it goes like this...

oh, nevermind.

[1800GAMBLER]

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a raise also cuts your implied odds for when you do hit your hand on later streets.

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please dont get me started on this again. implied odds, while exhistent, are entirely irrelevant concerning your flop action.

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No they aren't.

Even if you raise and someone calls and you get overlay on your draw you have still lowered your implied odds because the bettor will now not bet the turn so if you hit now you only get 1BB and not 2BB, this is something to be considered. I still think it's a raise. But there are situation in which are so close that it comes down to what i said above.


As clark says, why put money in now when my equity is close when my equity is going to hugely change on the turn.

[roy_miami]

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Even if you raise and someone calls and you get overlay on your draw you have still lowered your implied odds because the bettor will now not bet the turn so if you hit now you only get 1BB and not 2BB, this is something to be considered.

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You raise the flop CO calls SB calls, hit the flush on the turn, you bet one or both call, you bet the river one or both call. You win 4-6 BB's.

You flat call the flop, CO calls. You hit the flush on the turn, SB bets, you raise CO folds, SB calls or folds, you bet the river, SB calls or folds. You win 2-4 BB's.

You gain much equity through deception with a flop raise.

Add in to the equation that there is a chance your ahead of SB and may be able to get the CO to fold hands like small pocket pairs or bigger aces and a flop raise becomes even more sexy.

[stoxtrader]

gambler's post was very good. I think you are not looking at it correctly, but i will say it is close.

remind me again why SB calls your flop raise in your first scenario?

i still believe calling is correct here.

[roy_miami]

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remind me again why SB calls your flop raise in your first scenario?

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I'm not sure if I have ever seen a LAG fold for a single bet to a flop raise.

There are lots of reasons why just calling is correct, but winning a bigger pot due to implied odds is not one of them. IMO, most times you'll actually win a smaller pot by waiting to raise when you hit. On the flip side of raising the flop, you will often lose an extra half a bet or a full bet if the SB or CO reraises and you miss your flush. I agree its close and I could only make a decision at the table having played with SB for an orbit or 2.

[stoxtrader]

i mean CO then. sry.

[BradL]

I prefer to bet the turn and take showdown unimproved as well. in this spot checking through on the turn against one opponent in sb begs for a bet out on the river from a hand that otherwise may have folded the turn or you may have beat (smaller flush draw, unimproved).

-brad

[WillMagic]

How is this not an easy raise?

I don't really care about cleaning up the ace outs. If the CO calls two cold behind me, then I'm getting value with the overcard and flush draw against two players. If he folds, I have position, will be able to bet the turn, and see a free showdown (though this won't work sometimes against a LAG, but it will happen plenty.)

The implied odds explanation that stoxtrader suggests only makes sense if you are planning to fold unimproved to a river bet after calling the flop and turn, and the only way you can justify a river fold is if you decide somehow that this laggy SB absolutely must be paired and will never fold, which of course is not the case. Thus...raise the damn flop.

Will

[anatta]

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We don't think there's any chance that LAGgy SB is plugging a flush draw or staight draw? I raise, take a free card on a turn, and quite possibly show ace-high at showdown.

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I think this right. Even if CO folds and then SB three-bets, which, unless against a set or two pair, is the only way your flop raise at greater than 2:1 draw (nut flush ace overcard) can be -EV, even if this occurs...you gain info that ace high no good on end. And this is the worst case. SB probably won't 3-bet and , if CO calls, you don't mind so much getting three-bet (and even consider capping [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] ).

Also by taking the free turn card, you avoid another "worst case" that is getting check raised if you miss. Ditto for calling on the end if you really think he might be drawing.