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Old 12-07-2005, 08:46 PM
gumpzilla gumpzilla is offline
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He called with KJ.

While raising PF is certainly reasonable (and I'll do it often), I think not raising has its advantages as well. I can get away cheaply when I miss completely, which is nice when you're playing against multiple opponents who aren't likely to yield to a simple continuation bet if they caught the flop at all. People will also be somewhat less likely to give me credit for a good A, meaning that when I do get paid I stand a slightly better chance of getting paid well. (This makes some assumptions about the quality of play, of course, which leads me into my next point.) I think worse A's and worse K's are both likely hands and also hands that are likely to pay relatively well, but are likely to be intimidated by preflop tomfoolery.

The main reason I posted the hand was the river push. I think we can all agree that if I'm playing against a decent opponent the river should almost always be just a call, simply because pushing can only be called by hands that spank me. But against random donks in the 11s (and even competent players who think I'll do this with AQ on a regular basis) I can get paid by worse hands. As far as this specific hand goes, some analysis would be necessary to determine whether pushing or calling is better. It depends on the calling range. But I think we tend to assume too often that that range is going to be pretty much 44 here (if we think JJ or QT turns up on the end, I think we need to infer from this that his calling range is going to be pretty broad indeed.)

Anyway, I think it's easy to miss opportunities for profit because we give too much credit to our opponents. This is the same reason that I enjoy playing KQ or AJ (to give some more reputable examples) in a pretty wide range of situations in these games. It is my belief (on purely anecdotal data) that I tend to profit more from people who will pay me off with hands I beat in these circumstances than I will lose the times that I am outkicked.
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