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#11
11-26-2005, 03:15 PM
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Re: aces all the way
Roland,
This is an interesting hand, and it seems like it worked out for you. I'd like to see how others respond, because I think this is a -EV play. Hands that have you beat will call or raise, hands that don't have you beat will fold most of the time here (your board is extremely scary and the pot isn't that big). I prefer check/call here. I think you have a much better shot of a busted straight or low pair making a bluff at you than calling your river bet. - Mac 
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#13
11-27-2005, 02:54 PM
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Re: aces all the way
No, I'm saying it takes some balls, and its the correct play. Poker's all about squeaking out bets and saving bets, right? This is one of those spots. I think when play play at low limits like .5/1, you get the wrong idea about a winning hand usually is. You feel like if you don't have queens full, you're probably not gonna take down the pot. As you move up, this becomes less of the case..(I'm not speaking to you directly DJR, just in general.)
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#16
11-28-2005, 12:22 PM
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Re: aces all the way
[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see how others respond, [/ QUOTE ] Yeah me too… but whatever, here are my thoughts: [ QUOTE ] Hands that have you beat will call or raise, [/ QUOTE ] He certainly isn’t folding any better hands; that wasn’t the point of the bet, anyway - it’s a value bet, not a bluff. I doubt he even raises me with, say, aces up in this spot; he might even just call with a straight or trips. It really doesn’t matter though because I would have folded to a raise. [ QUOTE ] hands that don't have you beat will fold most of the time here [/ QUOTE ] This is where you are wrong. There is no way this guy is folding 9s on the river. And although he obviously should fold against me, he probably shouldn’t against most other (looser) players. He’s actually doing the right thing, just at the wrong time. [ QUOTE ] I think you have a much better shot of a busted straight or low pair making a bluff at you [/ QUOTE ] I don’t think he would ever try to bluff me. The snap-off-a-bluff-approach can be good against the right type of opponent though. To conclude - betting can’t possibly be -EV, unless my read is somehow totally off and he will bluff-raise me. And it’s not even close, actually. You should just give it a try and bet in some similar spots. It’s a lot of fun - I enjoy it way more than making “safe” bets with made hands. That’s just me, though. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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#17
11-28-2005, 09:16 PM
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Re: aces all the way
the best general rule i have seen for river play is this: if you only have what you have been representing then bet. they will call just to be sure. this is the Ciaffone rule. here tho you may be tempted to bet but i probably check here. why? because given the hand he may have a busted draw in which case he isnt calling if he missed but might bluff if you check. so you just have to figure out if he might have a pair that is calling.
Pat
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#18
11-28-2005, 09:18 PM
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Re: aces all the way
this is a good bet here bnecause once he calls your raise i dont think he has a draw. but the difference in this hand and the posters is that he has mostly high cards so many of the hands he might call a raise with will have picked up a draw.
Pat
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