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  #11  
Old 08-26-2005, 03:15 AM
SparkyDog SparkyDog is offline
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Default Re: Sexy draw easy turn check?

You're right. If you "knew" that the straight will scoop 100% of the time, then a bet is right at breakeven. But since it's not to the nuts and it's a pretty weak straight draw I still prefer to check the turn.
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  #12  
Old 08-26-2005, 03:20 AM
SparkyDog SparkyDog is offline
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Default Re: Sexy draw easy turn check?

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, I doubt you'll take it down with a turn bet. (I don't think SB is folding whatever he 3-bet with preflop very often in this big pot -- at least not yet.) Could a bet perhaps set up a river steal on a blank, though? That could be asking for a lot, but with such a big draw, you don't need that much folding equity to make pursuing a steal worthwhile.


[/ QUOTE ]

With the way SB played his hand it's pretty clear he has a good made hand. After coming this far, it's doubtful that he'll just give up for one bet in a 12BB pot. I think it'd be better to try and bluff when nobody's showing weakness. It's always better when bluffing to represent a hand, not just strength, and there's not many hands to clearly represent when bluffing on this board given the PF action.
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  #13  
Old 08-26-2005, 03:23 AM
Digs Digs is offline
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Default Re: Sexy draw easy turn check?

Why doesnt the straight scoop ~99%?

I dont see how anyone gets here w/o the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
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  #14  
Old 08-26-2005, 03:28 AM
Nick C Nick C is offline
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Default Re: Sexy draw easy turn check?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, I doubt you'll take it down with a turn bet. (I don't think SB is folding whatever he 3-bet with preflop very often in this big pot -- at least not yet.) Could a bet perhaps set up a river steal on a blank, though? That could be asking for a lot, but with such a big draw, you don't need that much folding equity to make pursuing a steal worthwhile.


[/ QUOTE ]

With the way SB played his hand it's pretty clear he has a good made hand. After coming this far, it's doubtful that he'll just give up for one bet in a 12BB pot. I think it'd be better to try and bluff when nobody's showing weakness. It's always better when bluffing to represent a hand, not just strength, and there's not many hands to clearly represent when bluffing on this board given the PF action.

[/ QUOTE ]

For what it's worth, SB's flop checkraise could be an attempt to protect a vulnerable made hand or even to get heads-up with his AK (which might have Hero beat).

As for what we're representing, couldn't we have a hand like A9/TT here, or even a set?

Anyway, I've never actually played 5/10 6-max, and I don't know how likely we are to be able to steal the pot with a turn bet followed by a river bet. I suspect not very. A lot of things would have to go right for that to happen.

I was kind of just throwing the idea out there.
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  #15  
Old 08-26-2005, 03:28 AM
wackjob wackjob is offline
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Default Re: Sexy draw easy turn check?

The only reason I think it is possible for SB to fold is because you read him as a TAG. A TAG can make a good(bad) fold whereas your typical fish cannot. When you totally miss on the river your only chance of taking the pot down is a bet & fold. Combine that with the chances you have of completing: flush, OESD, or the possibility that a pair of aces on the river might give you a winner & I'd prefer to bet the turn. As I'm sure you can tell, I'm a bit more LAG than your average 2+2er, but it works fine for me.
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