Flaccid ATs isolation

MikeNaked · #1 06-12-2005, 06:54 PM

Party 2/4 - Villain is 58/30/1.5, while the other guy posted in CO.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, BB 3-bets, UTG folds, Hero caps, CO calls, BB calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, CO folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (11.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

UncleSalty · #2 06-12-2005, 07:03 PM

I would fold the flop and pick a better spot. You have 3 dirty outs and two backdoor draws. Plus, you are not closing the action and are raising the PF 3-bettor. (Who just lead into you after a PF cap no less.)

Not g00t in my opinion.

donger · #3 06-12-2005, 07:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold the flop and pick a better spot. You have 3 dirty outs and two backdoor draws. Plus, you are not closing the action and are raising the PF 3-bettor. (Who just lead into you after a PF cap no less.)

Not g00t in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this guy's 60/30 stats not make this more of a call down after the PF cap? You could easily still have the best hand.

bozlax · #4 06-12-2005, 07:42 PM

I don't cap this preflop, even if I think Villan is lagging it up. Even if he's 3-betting light and you think he thinks you're stealing (from MP2?), he's still 3-betting.

Once you get to the flop, either your way or my way, he bets out and all you've got are a couple of backdoor draws and an either likely-dirty or likely-dead overcard. Bail, and wait for a better opportunity.

How many hands make up this stat-read?

UncleSalty · #5 06-12-2005, 07:44 PM

I suppose the pot's big enough to make that argument, but then why not call the river bet? If you're good on the flop, surely nothing has changed by the river??

donger · #6 06-12-2005, 08:00 PM

I plugged some estimates into pokerstove. Let's say that BB is playing this aggressively with 20% of his hands (even though he's raising 30%), and the poster, who has a random hand, is defending with 70% of his hands. This is typical for 2/4 posters to defend with all but the very worst hands.

You still have ~24% equity in this big ass pot. 1/4 of 14.5 SB is 3.625 BB. I think folding the flop is a pretty big mistake. The question is, do you raise to try to wipe out the poster and possibly get yourself three bet? If you can knock him out, it brings your equity up to 36%. It often costs you three bets to do this, however.

I'm really not sure what the best play on the flop is, I just know that it's NOT folding.

116,577,300 games 38.344 secs 3,040,300 games/sec

Board: Qs 9d 3h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
VILL: 47.1449 % 45.38% 01.76% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
HERO: 23.5392 % 21.76% 01.78% { AsTs }
POST: 29.3159 % 28.63% 00.69% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }

donger · #7 06-12-2005, 08:15 PM

Ok, continuing on with the equity analysis.. (Note that this is assuming the guy is a betting machine and his continued betting tells you little about his hand)

You're obviously not folding the nut flush draw on the turn. Let's move on to the river. By then, you're a 9:1 dog to his range of hands (top 20%) and getting ~13:1. I think calling this down is the best way to go. You're going to feel dumb most of the time, but that's how A-high calldowns usually go.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

176 games 0.005 secs 35,200 games/sec

Board: Qs 9d 3h 7s Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 88.3523 % 85.80% 02.56% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 11.6477 % 09.09% 02.56% { AsTs }

MikeNaked · #8 06-12-2005, 08:18 PM

That's what I was thinking on the flop - Drive out the poster and get it headsup. Take the free turn/showdown if necessary. I had ~50 hands on BB, and he wasn't overly aggressive post-flop (1.5).

On the river, yes, bad fold, but I didn't think I had an 8% chance of winning at the time.