TT, probably behind pf, AK flop, FPS?

ethan · #1 12-05-2004, 02:13 PM

There's a lot of preamble before the actual question, but comments about any part of the hand are appreciated.

This hand took place in a party 30+3 3-table. We're only 15 hands in or so, opponent's played 4. In one, he min-raised the flop, then pushed 4x pot on the turn. In another he called my pfr with position and folded the flop. The others were limp-folds. Nothing too exciting, but he doesn't seem to have too much trouble putting his chips in the middle. (Later hands reinforced this impression.) My stack came in the usual fashion - spotting someone the nuts and sucking out.

To the hand: I almost never minraise, but here I think it might get me a multiway pot with position and about 200 chips in the pot preflop. (I've been playing a lot of PLO, it's helped me with pot-building in hold'em.) That doesn't pan out, and I'm heads-up out of position. There's some chance he has 99, but I think I'm either beaten or against AK/maybe AQs.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (7 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero (t2270)
MP2 (t905)
CO (t1125)
Button (t1180)
SB (t2390)
BB (t795)
UTG (t1335)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t20, Hero raises to t40, MP2 folds, CO raises to t150, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls t110.

The flop. Wow, did that ever miss me. I'm now behind everything but 99. I check.

Flop: (t350) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

...and he checks. That I didn't expect. He could be trapping...no draws but gutshots out there so it's not a terrible time for that. Or, he could have a pair below kings and be scared of the flop. At this point, I begin to think that he's afraid I'm trapping. To the turn:

Turn: (t350) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t200, Hero raises to t550, CO folds.

I guess this was just going with a read. He thought for awhile before putting that bet out there, and it just didn't seem confident. Furthermore, min-raises at Party tend to come from hands that hit that flop. I need him to fold over 50% here for this play to be +EV. What I'm wondering is if that's overly optimistic. Fancy play syndrome or goot?

MLG · #2 12-05-2004, 02:42 PM

If you think he missed then bet out on the turn. You risk less chips if you are behind (which i think you are most of the time). I don't think you are ahead enough to make this play generally.

Lloyd · #3 12-05-2004, 02:50 PM

If you're looking for a multi-way pot with TT then you're playing SOLELY for a set. Why raise anything? Just limp into the pot and hope you connect. If you don't, fold. If you're playing TT as a decent pre-flop hand, then make a real raise of 4-5XBB given the EP limper. I think that early in a tournament either is a fine choice. But mini-raising is not. It really doesn't accomplish anything. I also don't understand why you think it would give you good position post-flop. You're MP1 and you say you want multi-way action. Therefore, you are looking for 2 or 3 people to call you with better position. So make a real raise or just limp in.

You get raised pre-flop by someone who you think is a little LAG or perhaps just doesn't have much of a clue about how to play poker. I would put him on at least AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ. Maybe AQ or even less so AJ. If you think he would re-raise with more hands then go with your instinct. But so early in a tourney I would probably play more conservatively since it's really too soon to put a good read on someone.

I agree with the flop comments. I would probably check-fold here. And if I were him with AK I would probably check as well so you could be trapped. And if I were him with JJ or QQ I'd be worried that you were trapping.

As to your question, based on the hands that I would put him on:

There are 28 hands that he won't fold (AA, KK, AK).
There are 12 hands that he will definitely fold (QQ, JJ).
There are 32 hands he might have and probably wouldn't fold (AQ, AJ).

Even if you add 99 there are still more hands that he won't fold here and that's pretty much the only way you'll win the pot. So with my range of hands it's a -EV play. But you were the one playing and if you felt strongly that he was more likely to have QQ or JJ or 99 versus AA, KK, Ax then you played it well. It really just comes down to the range of hands you put him on. I probably would have folded.