Am I a doof?

[WarDekar]

Of course I take the 200 chips, but the problem is he could easily have a PP, which I guess I have 6 outs to, but I just don't see him calling with anything other than a fav here.

I'm probably not thinking straight here though, I've had some horrible beats so far today, at least I got extremely lucky for a win...

[tigerite]

Sigh..

I've given you the correct answer and still you won't see it. Fine I'll do you some maths, then you'll see, and I'll use conservative values, too.

20% of the time - he has Ax/KQ/KJ - folds let's say 90% of the time.

So 0.2 x 0.9 = 0.18 you get T1615 + 200 = T1815
0.2 x 0.1 x 0.75 you get T1615 + 1010 + 75 = T2700
0.2 x 0.1 x 0.25 you get T1615 - 1010 = T605

We'll say 90% he has 22-QQ when he has a PP, 5% KK, 5% AA. We'll even say he calls 100% of the time (very unrealistic with 22-66, say, but anyway..)

0.8 x 0.45 x 0.9 you get T2700
0.8 x 0.55 x 0.9 you get T605

0.8 x 0.3 x 0.05 you get T2700
0.8 x 0.7 x 0.05 you get T605

0.8 x 0.07 x 0.05 you get T2700
0.8 x 0.93 x 0.05 you get T605


0.2 x 0.9 = 0.18 you get T1615 + 200 = T1815


0.2 x 0.9 ==> T1815 = T326.7

(0.2 x 0.1 x 0.75) + 0.8 x (0.45 x 0.9 + 0.3 x 0.05 + 0.07 x 0.05) ==> T2700 = T955.26

(0.2 x 0.1 x 0.25) + 0.8 x (0.55 x 0.9 + 0.7 x 0.05 + 0.93 x 0.05) ==> T605 = T282.051

Total = T1564

Even using these frankly ludicrous values you're losing 50 chips. It's not even close to anything like this, either..

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course I take the 200 chips, but the problem is he could easily have a PP, which I guess I have 6 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Quote of the day lol