Free Will Philosophy Problem

[raisins]

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When he presents me with the choice, I realize that I have already made my decision - without knowing it at the time - and I am stuck with that.

There is no changing your mind at the last minute. The decision to do that was already part of your predictable state at the time he set up the boxes.

This does not condradict free will. It was my free will that led me to the point in my life that he based his decision on. Free will is not random, I can only choose what seems to be the best choice at the time, for whatever reason.

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This is precisely what does contradict free will. If you belive that at a moment of decision that your choice has been made for you as an effect of all the causes in the past (your history) then the idea of free will is unnecessary. The alien (imaginary being in Newcomb) has already made his prediction of what you are going to do based on his knowledge of your story. By picking only the second box you are agreeing that your choice of it has been predetermined. Taking both boxes is an expression of your belief in free will in that you know that the alien has already made his decision whatever it may be and that reason suugests you take both boxes which you choose to follow. Some may think that taking only the second box is superior as your belief in free will and reason is part of your story and the alien understands that and knows you will take both boxes so he leaves you with only $1,000. Others think that taking both boxes is superior as if I have the responsibility to make my own decision then I must put my faith in my ability to do so and to act in my own interest. In other words, it is contradictory for me to be in the position of making a decision and doing so on the basis of not being able to make a spontaneous decision.

That's why it's a paradox.

regards,

raisins

[edthayer]

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Why are you using future tense? The alien has made (Note: past tense) his decision. It's wishful thinking to imagine that you can influence the course of events in the past.

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Excellent post, gasgod.

I don't think the alien is ever able to predict the future in any version of this problem. Nor does he have God-like powers to alter past events. Also, the possibility that the alien is cheating was never posed, and seeing as this is a hypothetical situation, we shouldn't give any consideration to that possibility.

The problem is written in such a way that if you believe in free will, you believe that the alien is fallible in his predictions. If you are a determinist, then you believe the alien will always be correct, because he will always know your decision.

But regardless of whether free will or determinism is correct, it's still always correct to take both boxes, because of the simple fact that the past is set in stone.

[edthayer]

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I flip a coin. Heads I take both, tails just box 2. Beat that alien from another planet.

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This is an excellent example of why the alien can never be 100% accurate.

[TStoneMBD]

great post.

so many of the people in this thread have no idea how this exercise relates to free will and determinism; its scary.

[Happy Hour]

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I flip a coin. Heads I take both, tails just box 2. Beat that alien from another planet.

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This is an excellent example of why the alien can never be 100% accurate.

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Just saying it is impossible for him to predict accurately is dodging the question. You might as well say the whole problem is absurd because there is no such alien. While true, I don't think that is what your philosophy teacher wants.

Other versions of this problem state that the being is a perfect predictor or at least has a long record of being accurate. I think it is important to the problem that the being offering you the choice can predict what you will do. If he can't, then there is no paradox. You could substitute some other normal guy giving you the choice. It becomes just a silly guessing game.

I mean, it's obvious that if the alien can't predict accurately, then you take both boxes. There is no real choice at all and there is no discussion.

[Happy Hour]

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If you belive that at a moment of decision that your choice has been made for you as an effect of all the causes in the past (your history) then the idea of free will is unnecessary

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But in this case, I am saying that I chose. It was my propensity for picking box #2 that made the alien put the million in. I caused box #2 to be full. My act of taking the box is determined, but it is determined by me. I think that is still free will, because no one else made the choice for me.

On the other hand, I am counting on him being able to predict. So if I am predictable, then my life may just be determined.

I don't have a problem with free will and determinism coexisting.

Now I'm done trying to pretend like I know what I am talking about here. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[gasgod]

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I flip a coin. Heads I take both, tails just box 2. Beat that alien from another planet.

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This is an excellent example of why the alien can never be 100% accurate.

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Just saying it is impossible for him to predict accurately is dodging the question. You might as well say the whole problem is absurd because there is no such alien. While true, I don't think that is what your philosophy teacher wants.

Other versions of this problem state that the being is a perfect predictor or at least has a long record of being accurate. I think it is important to the problem that the being offering you the choice can predict what you will do. If he can't, then there is no paradox. You could substitute some other normal guy giving you the choice. It becomes just a silly guessing game.

I mean, it's obvious that if the alien can't predict accurately, then you take both boxes. There is no real choice at all and there is no discussion.

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He didn't merely assert that the alien couldn't predict your action, he proved that this condition is impossible in principle. This amounts to demonstrating that the paradox is nonsense. It's like saying: "Assuming that 13 is not a prime number ... "

So, I'm changing my answer. The right answer is that the question is meaningless.

But we knew that all along, didn't we?

GG

[Girchuck]

Do this. Go to a truly random number generator. Something with the access to quantum uncertainty. Flip a coin. Take Box 1 and Box 2 if the coin lands on its head or its tail, or if it lands on the edge. Take Box 2 only if the coin hangs in the air.

[PairTheBoard]

First, do you accept the assumption that the alien CAN predict your choice with 100% accuracy?

Do you say yes? If so call this axiom 1.

Now, it's true that what's in the box is in the box regardless of your choice. So you choose both boxes. By axiom 1 this was predicted so no million dollars. You play again. Again you choose both boxes. Again by axiom 1 no million. You do this 5 or 10 times. Each time no million. Finally you think what the hell, let's see what happens if I just choose box 2. Viola. By Axom 1 you are now a millionaire. What do you do next? Stubornly go back to your original best reasoning?

Meanwhile your buddy who got the same deal was choosing Box 2 each time and by Axiom 1 is now a multimillionaire.

PairTheBoard

[Demana]

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First, do you accept the assumption that the alien CAN predict your choice with 100% accuracy?


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No.