Free Will Philosophy Problem

[colgin]

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I think this part of the question is the most interesting. Can someone's actions be predicted 100% of the time and if so, couldn't counter measures be put in place to make them lose no matter what they choose?

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Yes, but only if you knew what their choice was. In the problem, you don't know what the aliens choice is so you can't try to defeat his prediction.

There is a good discussion of this problem at the attached link:

Newcomb's Paradox

[Bodhi]

I already posted it in the probability forum, do a search on "Newcomb's Paradox" to see what others here have already said.

[Happy Hour]

I guess I am a stupid person then, but I'll be a stupid millionaire. I take box #2 only.

The way I look at it, I'm betting $1000 that the alien is correct in his prediction. If he indeed knows me, then he will know that I am an all-or-nothing kind of guy. I make decisions like that all the time. Assuming he is being honest, then it is almost certain he will put the money in box #2.

If there is a million dollars in the box, I don't care about leaving $1000. Big deal. The alien can keep it and give it to the next sucker that takes both boxes. Or take his alien wife out to dinner.

If he was wrong and thought I would take both, then, hell, it would be worth $1000 to laugh at him and knock him down a peg or two. Then I would take pictures of him and sell them and the story to the Enquirer for $1,000,000.

[jordanx]

I'd take only box #2.

Either I'd get a million dollars or I'd prove that a brilliant alien scientist wasted 30 years studying my every action instead of doing something far more important (worth every penny).

[SittingBull]

how well the psychologist can predict MY behavior.
I must change gears. That is,I would have to drastically change my behavior pattern of a lifetime. There is an extremely small chance of my doing so UNLESS I'm aware of the psychologist's experiment and his intentions. Given that I will lose 1000.00 if box2 is empty,I won't lose sleep over it.. However,a 50% chance of winning a million and NOT taking it will cause me to lose some sleep. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] So , if I'm NOT aware of the Alien'experiments and intention,I would select BOX2. But I'm speaking for myself. I do not know what anyone else would do. HOWEVER, my GUESS is that MOST of them would do the same as I.
SittingBull

[edthayer]

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I'd take only box #2.

Either I'd get a million dollars or I'd prove that a brilliant alien scientist wasted 30 years studying my every action instead of doing something far more important (worth every penny).

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Assuming the only thing that matters is making the decision that will get you the most money from the boxes, how can you turn down that free 1k?

[SittingBull]

pattern of a lifetime. Since U think that the Alien thinks U are a go-for-the-gusto type of guy,he would NOT put the MILLION in BOX2. Hence,U would be out of both 1000.00 and 1million.
In your case,U should go for the 1000.00.
However,if u were an extremely conservative non-gambling person, and U know that the alien know u were that type,then U would go for BOX2--assuming u knew the alien's objectives. You would do a reverse tell on the alien. But your tell is a well-ingrain HABIT. Very difficult to reverse.
SittingBull

[jordanx]

The only thing that matters to me is charging the alien the most amount possible to be accurate.

[just2ska]

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and can predict your actions as accurately as possible

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I think this part of the question is the most interesting. Can someone's actions be predicted 100% of the time and if so, couldn't counter measures be put in place to make them lose no matter what they choose?

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it's a hypothetical situation.... keyword hypothetical

[Hoi Polloi]

The choice is laying you 1 to 999 that the alien can predict your action. Only a really bad, super alien would be worse than that. I take box 2.