Why favorites are on a roll in NFL '05

[kdog]

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I determined that among the home dog subset which is 19-39 ATS, adding 3 points to the dog would still only generate a record of 26-31 ATS. I believe there are two explanations for this:

1) The linesmakers, more or less, have done a very bad job evaluating teams this year.



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I don't think this is correct. If you compare the preseason over/under wins totals lines to today's standings most teams are pretty close to projections(with the Bears and Texans the most obvious exceptions). And if this statement were correct, don't you think any half decent capper would be crushing the season?

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2) While the talent differences always exist even between high-mid tier and low-mid tier teams, the biggest anecdotal difference I've noticed is how rarely favorites are turning the ball over relative to years past. I watch an awful lot of games and I've seen this pattern hold all season. This is the single largest reason to bet underdogs and the well seems totally dry in this regard in '05.

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This has potential. We all know that turnovers help dog bettors but it's not just the fact that they happen, it's where on the field and when in the game that they happen that's crucial. The better teams could even have the same amount of turnovers as past seasons but if a higher percentage were coming at, say, the 45 yard line this year as opposed to the 25 yard line in previous seasons there would be an impact. Certainly not a big enough impact by itself for this years numbers but it could be one factor.