Am I really "protecting" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?

[MCS]

Hello. This is from a nine-handed $2/4 Party game. I have only been at the table for six hands, and thus have little in the way of reads (I know, I know). I will say that so far most flops had four or five people, and that the average pot size was around 8BB.

Um, and I saw a guy bluff-raise the turn with ace high. He's not in this hand. Hope that helps.

Anyway, here's the deal:

I am UTG+1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG, I, button, SB, and BB see the flop for one bet each.

Flop (5 SB): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Nice. SB, BB, UTG check to me. I bet. Button, SB, UTG call.

Turn (4.5 BB): T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB checks, UTG bets.

This is where I am debating what to do. My first instinct was to think that I'm behind a ten and I should just call. It didn't seem that I care a whole lot if I leave hands in that I'm beating, so I don't know if there's any value in raising to protect my hand here.

Plus, any card I spike that improves my hand (heart, nine, ace) won't cause any hand that's behind to beat me, and a lot of those hands would pay me off on the river (e.g., A6).

On the other hand, if someone has a T, I have (at most) 14 outs, and so I can't really raise for value. Or is it important for me to make a 6 or 2 fold? I suspect a T is not folding here.

I guess I feel like this will be easy to play if I improve my hand, but if I'm behind, I'm not sure the raise does a lot for me. So I wasn't sure if I should do it.

Thanks to all.

[element00]

just call
if no flush card comes on the river - call


if a flush card comes bet [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Entity]

Can you tell me why you think someone has a T? Did they show it to you? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Bet. You've got 2PTK + nut flush draw.

Rob

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you tell me why you think someone has a T? Did they show it to you? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Bet. You've got 2PTK + nut flush draw.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean raise. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Yeah I will raise here about 99.2% of the time.

Brad

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you tell me why you think someone has a T? Did they show it to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you said "bet" and not "raise," I'm not sure if you realized that UTG bet into me after check-calling the flop. That bet out of nowhere looks like it could be a T or better.

I realize that my hand is strong, but if UTG were to show me a T, I would just call, right? So there's some probability with which UTG holds a T that makes a raise wrong, and maybe my assessment exceeds that probability.

That's why this is a situation where I wonder if my instinct to raise is flawed. I suppose UTG could also be betting a draw.

I know my hand is good, but somehow the autoraise just seems wrong.

[BaronVonCP]

If you are planning on calling the river unimproved, raising is definitely better.

[john smith]

I would just call on the turn and call on the river if you don't improve your hand.

[jordanx]

Yes sir, you are protecting your hand by raising this turn, almost surely button and/or sb will fold so you're going heads up into the river with a solid hand.

Not only are you knocking out players that could beat you here, you are most likely buying yourself a free showdown unimproved.

[ErrantNight]

there's a lot of things UTG could be betting with besides a T, and even against a T, you've got a lot of outs. a flush draw, overcards with a gutshot, some combination of those two, 88 or 77, etc. etc.

I'm assuming you just neglected to mention that BB is still in this pot...

So the question is: do you want to build a pot hoping to improve on the river (or a blank that will let you call down) and encourage everyone to come along with you... or do you raise and hope to thin the field a bit. The answer is the latter...

It's a large enough pot to be worth taking down, now, and certainly on the river... not raising gives virtually everyone correct odds to call as well, and potentially draw out on you. You want to make it as incorrect as possible for them to make their longshot draws, and to clear up outs (overcards, anyone with a 6 or 2, etc.). And with as many outs as you have, you're ok with calls... in this size pot 14 outs is a lot to have even if you are behind... calling makes it increasingly likely that if you are ahead, someone else can catch up.

[jordanx]

What makes a raise better than a call on the turn here is his position relative to the bettor.

1) There are two players left to act, which will likely fold to a two bet but probably call one.

2) UTG might have the ten or better, he might be betting he flush draw, he might have a straight draw, a raise here will likely buy a free showdown, since UTG is first to act.

So for the same price as calling the turn and river, you get to knock out two players and get a free showdown.