Am I really "protecting" my 2nd pair/nut flush draw?

[MCS]

Hello. This is from a nine-handed $2/4 Party game. I have only been at the table for six hands, and thus have little in the way of reads (I know, I know). I will say that so far most flops had four or five people, and that the average pot size was around 8BB.

Um, and I saw a guy bluff-raise the turn with ace high. He's not in this hand. Hope that helps.

Anyway, here's the deal:

I am UTG+1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG, I, button, SB, and BB see the flop for one bet each.

Flop (5 SB): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Nice. SB, BB, UTG check to me. I bet. Button, SB, UTG call.

Turn (4.5 BB): T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB checks, UTG bets.

This is where I am debating what to do. My first instinct was to think that I'm behind a ten and I should just call. It didn't seem that I care a whole lot if I leave hands in that I'm beating, so I don't know if there's any value in raising to protect my hand here.

Plus, any card I spike that improves my hand (heart, nine, ace) won't cause any hand that's behind to beat me, and a lot of those hands would pay me off on the river (e.g., A6).

On the other hand, if someone has a T, I have (at most) 14 outs, and so I can't really raise for value. Or is it important for me to make a 6 or 2 fold? I suspect a T is not folding here.

I guess I feel like this will be easy to play if I improve my hand, but if I'm behind, I'm not sure the raise does a lot for me. So I wasn't sure if I should do it.

Thanks to all.

[element00]

just call
if no flush card comes on the river - call


if a flush card comes bet [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Entity]

Can you tell me why you think someone has a T? Did they show it to you? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Bet. You've got 2PTK + nut flush draw.

Rob

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you tell me why you think someone has a T? Did they show it to you? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Bet. You've got 2PTK + nut flush draw.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean raise. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Yeah I will raise here about 99.2% of the time.

Brad

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you tell me why you think someone has a T? Did they show it to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you said "bet" and not "raise," I'm not sure if you realized that UTG bet into me after check-calling the flop. That bet out of nowhere looks like it could be a T or better.

I realize that my hand is strong, but if UTG were to show me a T, I would just call, right? So there's some probability with which UTG holds a T that makes a raise wrong, and maybe my assessment exceeds that probability.

That's why this is a situation where I wonder if my instinct to raise is flawed. I suppose UTG could also be betting a draw.

I know my hand is good, but somehow the autoraise just seems wrong.

[BaronVonCP]

If you are planning on calling the river unimproved, raising is definitely better.

[john smith]

I would just call on the turn and call on the river if you don't improve your hand.

[jordanx]

What makes a raise better than a call on the turn here is his position relative to the bettor.

1) There are two players left to act, which will likely fold to a two bet but probably call one.

2) UTG might have the ten or better, he might be betting he flush draw, he might have a straight draw, a raise here will likely buy a free showdown, since UTG is first to act.

So for the same price as calling the turn and river, you get to knock out two players and get a free showdown.

[SamIAm]

[ QUOTE ]
So for the same price as calling the turn and river,

[/ QUOTE ]
Now, wait a second. It's only the same price if he doesn't have to pay any more when he doesn't improve. Are you saying that he should fold if he's re-raised? Of course not. What if the river's a blank and UTG bets? I agree with your analysis, but you can't really say opening himself up twice to bets doesn't cost anything.

Anyway, I (and clearly MCS) thought the overcalls were more valuable than you guys. You've convinced me, though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
-Sam

[MCS]

Thanks for the replies.

I think that I'd have been more confident about the raise if I had been sure that: (1) I wouldn't get 3-bet on the turn, and (2) I could get a free showdown if I didn't improve. I wasn't all that positive about either (1) or (2). I also thought the overcalls could be valuable, especially if I was just knocking out dominated hands.

In the actual hand, I decided to raise to knock out players, and I think this was a good decision but for the wrong reason. The button and SB folded. UTG called.

River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG bets, I raise, UTG calls. UTG has T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and MHIG. Thank you river.