I was wrong, you were right, but that's why i joined 2+2, 80K hands... - Page 5

PokerBob · #41 10-31-2005, 03:28 PM

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I plan on submerging myself in literature for the next two weeks (i'm considering a month) before I play another hand of poker.

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This seems a bit excessive to me, but I hope it works out.

Barry · #42 10-31-2005, 03:40 PM

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I plan on submerging myself in literature for the next two weeks (i'm considering a month) before I play another hand of poker.

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This seems a bit excessive to me, but I hope it works out.

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Me too. I've been running bad since the Party split, but I could only manage a 4 day break.

DcifrThs · #43 10-31-2005, 03:44 PM

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I'll still play higher when i'm in Vegas, because, my record there is good enough to warrant it, however, I am not ready for the 30 on PP.

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uh, apparantly you have learned nothing (EDIT: about analysis of games you should be playing)

Barron

#44 10-31-2005, 03:51 PM

You think that 30-60 on PP is softer than 30-60 at bellagio?

I'm not talking about the tables with three vegas grinders on them, either. I'm talking about the tables with your run of the mill mediocre tourist players.

Why would I not want to play in a game that I can beat?

I can't beat 30 on PP, but i'm 5 for 6 in vegas....

What's the word, dcrifr?

James282 · #45 10-31-2005, 03:55 PM

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You think that 30-60 on PP is softer than 30-60 at bellagio?

I'm not talking about the tables with three vegas grinders on them, either. I'm talking about the tables with your run of the mill mediocre tourist players.

Why would I not want to play in a game that I can beat?

I can't beat 30 on PP, but i'm 5 for 6 in vegas....

What's the word, dcrifr?

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You broke even for 80k hands and you are using being "5 for 6" as justification for playing this high. That is a problem.
-James

I.Rowboat · #46 10-31-2005, 03:56 PM

Tex,

First, let me say that I have enjoyed your posts here. Some were pretty brash, but overall I find you to be a refreshing alternative to the relentless sarcasm that seems to dominate the M-H Limit forum. Please continue posting.

You haven't really asked for any advice in this thread, but I'll offer some anyway: as you indicate in your OP, buy PokerTracker (and probably PokerAce Heads Up Display) and learn to use it/them religiously. Not using PT + PAHUD when your opponents are is a HUGE leak. Beyond the obvious statistical relevance, PAHUD will also reveal the mucked hole cards of any opponents who are still in the hand at showdown. Want to see who calls down a river bet with A high...or worse? PAHUD will reveal that to you...and will also reveal that info to your opponents. So it is a double edged sword, but it's one you need to have to be competitve at this level. Buy it, learn it, use it, and accept it as part of your life if you play on a site that is compatible with PT.

Another advantage of PT is that you will get a completely unbiased view of your own tendencies, and the tendencies of your opponents. I used to think that I was fairly tight, but my PT stats convinced me otherwise and gave me reason to examine my play in a fresh light, especially PF and blinds defense, and this really helped my game.

Alternatively, you can play on sites that are NOT (currently) compatible with PT (e.g., Bodog, others). This at least will level the playing field in this critical area.

Anyway, don't lose heart. You need confidence to play at this level, and you should fall back and regroup until you feel confident in your game again.

DcifrThs · #47 10-31-2005, 04:01 PM

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You think that 30-60 on PP is softer than 30-60 at bellagio?

I'm not talking about the tables with three vegas grinders on them, either. I'm talking about the tables with your run of the mill mediocre tourist players.

Why would I not want to play in a game that I can beat?

I can't beat 30 on PP, but i'm 5 for 6 in vegas....

What's the word, dcrifr?

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jesus christ man. for the last time, your results over small samples are just that, small sample returns. your posterior belief, given that you played 10k hands at party and won $X was that you are good enough to play the party 30/60. after 80k hands, you had a prior belief based on 10k hands and it has changed after another 70k hands. NOW, your posterior belief is that you are NOT good enough to play the party 30/60.

similarly, being 5/6 in vegas can be analagous to your first 10k hands at party. irrespective of the quality of the games in vegas, im talking about your analysis about which games you should be playing. your prior in vegas is now that you've won 5/6 times and you're good enough to play X/2X limit. you see, its the same method you used at party to play the 30/60...except now you've learned that 10k (or analagously 5/6 wins) is not good enough to determine your win rate.

i agree vegas games on average are better than party games of a similar limit(or even a limit above etc.) ...i took issue with your statement that given your short term results in vegas, you are good enough to play "higher" limits in vegas. very simple elementary probability theory at work here.

FINALLY, and you should answer this question b/c everybody has asked and i dont see you ever answer it: how do you know you have played 80k hands if you dont have a tracking program like pokertracker? where do you get that #? do you keep results for vegas? how many hours have you played in those 6 times? what were your results? w/o records, everything is meaningless and you can NEVER adjust your beliefs based on your results b/c you have no results to adjust from.
Barron

DcifrThs · #48 10-31-2005, 04:08 PM

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[ QUOTE ]
You think that 30-60 on PP is softer than 30-60 at bellagio?

I'm not talking about the tables with three vegas grinders on them, either. I'm talking about the tables with your run of the mill mediocre tourist players.

Why would I not want to play in a game that I can beat?

I can't beat 30 on PP, but i'm 5 for 6 in vegas....

What's the word, dcrifr?

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You broke even for 80k hands and you are using being "5 for 6" as justification for playing this high. That is a problem.
-James

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yea...way to make my 3paragraph post into 1 sentance...man do i ever suck.

Barron

EDIT- PS- playing live short term is way more of a crapshoot for a winning player than playing online. in those 6 sessions you got dealt way fewer hands than you get multitabling on the internet. further, measuring your "wins/loses" ratio is useless for overall analysis imo.

mike l. · #49 10-31-2005, 04:25 PM

"Are you saying that during year number 8 or thereabouts, I still shouldn't look to my results for "something fairly definitive?"

you will know *something* after 8 years full time, but not the nut answer where you can say with real affirmation (or is it affirmity?) "im a $xx per hour player in that game". one would be off by more than anyone would like to accept having put in that sort of hard work for 8 years. it takes 10-15 years live to really reach a definitive conclusion.

on other words, youve (barely) reached the long run, and andy has. not sure about gabe. but most of us are not even close. we wouldnt be able to say for sure that we're beating a game for 1/2 a bb, a whole bb, or 2 bbs per hour. it'd be off by 1/2 a bb at least most of the time.

that's why all i concentrate on is how i play session to session. because the long run is too long to worry about.

mike l. · #50 10-31-2005, 04:30 PM

"Many of us "internet guys" think it is probably a bit lower like 300-400K hands."

because if you didnt all believe that youd crack up. anyway some math guy showed me it was 700k on this very forum in fact in one of my previous rants about this back when i was saying it must be 2 million hands and a lifetime of live play to reach the elusive long run.

justin a was telling me about some guy who posted in hush and in a 500k hand span he had one 650 bb downswing. and the guy is up 3bb/100 playing 10-20 6 max over that many hands. that's the guy i want to talk to, the rest of you are all chump change.