common sickening river card decision...

[aggie]

2-4 6max 5-handed

I've been playing with villian for 50 hands and he's looking at a lot of flops and seems laggish. He has not PF raised alot and hasn't done anything unreasonable.

UTG (822.35) raises to 16, hero (541.70) calls with t [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] t [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], everybody else folds

pot ($38)

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

villian bets 12, hero raises to 35 and villian calls

pot ($108)

turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

villian checks, hero bets 100 and villian calls

pot ($308)

river: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

villian hesitates for a second and pushes...Hero has $334 left.

I'm pretty sure i know the answer to this one but i want to make sure.

[Allinlife]

I hesitate for a second than call

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
I hesitate for a second than call

[/ QUOTE ]

How often would you expect to be ahead?

[thabadguy]

this is a tough one...but i think i fold, he can very easily have the Ah, something like AJ or AQ.

[Yeti]

Fold.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

How often would you expect that i'm beat here?

[thabadguy]

I dunno, but i expect him to have the Ah very very often.

[flawless_victory]

if this is a dry A bluff, i will eat a bucket of glass.
PARTY 2/4!

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

How often would you expect that i'm beat here?

[/ QUOTE ]

At a wild guess, 80% of the time.

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]
if this is a dry A bluff, i will eat a bucket of glass.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you are the man. Where are you from?