Mirage 10-20 hand. Standard or.....?

GreywolfNYC · #1 05-13-2005, 11:48 AM

I'm about 3 1/2 hours into the session. Villain is a young local guy who hasn't done anything outrageous so far.
Folded to me in the cutoff, I open-raise with 9c9s. The button insta-calls. The blinds fold and we take it heads up.
Flop comes Ace high, with two small clubs.
I check, button bets, I raise, button calls.
Turn is another small club.
I bet, he calls.
River is a rag, and also a fourth club.
I bet....

sfer · #2 05-13-2005, 12:02 PM

I think I just bet/bet/bet.

River is totally standard.

Sully · #3 05-13-2005, 12:33 PM

I really can't find a reason to bet the river here. I think it would be tough to name a hand that I could beat that would call me.

If he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], he bets, you probably call, and you're beat.

If he has another A, he checks behind, and you win. I think he only bets or calls with the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Even if he had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I think he would check here.

It's really that simple. It's a coin flip at this point, except the coin is probably DERBd in his favor by about 3-1. You gain nothing with a bet.

flawless_victory · #4 05-13-2005, 12:47 PM

if he calls, youre gonna look at AxQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

sfer · #5 05-13-2005, 12:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], he bets, you probably call, and you're beat.

If he has another A, he checks behind, and you win. I think he only bets or calls with the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Even if he had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I think he would check here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where do players call with the nuts and check behind with the second nuts?

Hamlet · #6 05-13-2005, 12:56 PM

If he isn't going to call without a club, it seems like bluff-betting an on board four-flush would always be hugely +EV. I think most people are going to call with any Ace in this situation.

[ QUOTE ]
I really can't find a reason to bet the river here. I think it would be tough to name a hand that I could beat that would call me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sully · #7 05-13-2005, 01:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], he bets, you probably call, and you're beat.

If he has another A, he checks behind, and you win. I think he only bets or calls with the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Even if he had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I think he would check here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where do players call with the nuts and check behind with the second nuts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are absolutely right, and wish I could rewrite this. Obviously, the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] raises every time.

Would any A really call you every time? I think that there are a lot of ace hands that I wouldn't call with here, and therefore, I'm not sure that there is any value in betting the river. I think that check call is the way to go, only because the odds are there that your flush is good.

If you bet, would you fold to a raise?

GreywolfNYC · #8 05-13-2005, 03:54 PM

Here's my thinking. I wanted to probe with the flop check-raise and turn bet. If he had a JJ, QQ, TT or a weaker Ace I was hoping to put him off his hand. Obviously, that didn't work. If he had played back at me on either of those streets I probably would have dropped. But he didn't give me any clear idea of where I stood when he flat-called the flop and the turn bets. The river bet seemed to be the better choice when the hand played out as it did.

lil feller · #9 05-13-2005, 04:37 PM

This hand is more interesting than it first appears, here's my thoughts.

You said the button "auto called" your PFR, right? and that he hadn't gotten out of line so far? Is he passive enough to cold/call your PFR with JJ or TT? I doubt it, that makes him holdng an Ace a very likely possibility, but probably not AQ or AK (as he would likely 3 bet with either of those hands, but might c/c with AT or AJ). If he's a little loose I suppose he might c/c with a smaller pocket pair, or something like KQ.

I think you could make a strong case for check/folding this flop, or leading and folding to a raise. A flop c/r against this type of opponent accomplishes very little, we have to think he probably flopped an ace here (again depending on his PF cold calling range), and that he won't fold it. If you think he'd cold call with KQ or KJ or some other 2 over card hands, I like the flop check raise. Make him think he's drawing dead, and get him to fold a hand with outs.

After the flop c/r the turn lead is easy, but when he calls your in trouble.

The river is horrible. A bet here makes no sense. Unless he's so bad to call with a red AJ you make nothing from a value bet here. Your only options on this river are to

1. Check/call in the hope that he'd bet a random ace or the 8 of clubs.

2. Check/raise in the hope that he'll bet the J or T of clubs, and then fold it to a raise.

Thoughts?

lf

GreywolfNYC · #10 05-13-2005, 04:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is more interesting than it first appears, here's my thoughts.

You said the button "auto called" your PFR, right? and that he hadn't gotten out of line so far? Is he passive enough to cold/call your PFR with JJ or TT? I doubt it, that makes him holdng an Ace a very likely possibility, but probably not AQ or AK (as he would likely 3 bet with either of those hands, but might c/c with AT or AJ). If he's a little loose I suppose he might c/c with a smaller pocket pair, or something like KQ.

I think you could make a strong case for check/folding this flop, or leading and folding to a raise. A flop c/r against this type of opponent accomplishes very little, we have to think he probably flopped an ace here (again depending on his PF cold calling range), and that he won't fold it. If you think he'd cold call with KQ or KJ or some other 2 over card hands, I like the flop check raise. Make him think he's drawing dead, and get him to fold a hand with outs.

After the flop c/r the turn lead is easy, but when he calls your in trouble.

The river is horrible. A bet here makes no sense. Unless he's so bad to call with a red AJ you make nothing from a value bet here. Your only options on this river are to

1. Check/call in the hope that he'd bet a random ace or the 8 of clubs.

2. Check/raise in the hope that he'll bet the J or T of clubs, and then fold it to a raise.

Thoughts?

lf

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for a well-thought out reply. Yes, a very strong case could be made for check-folding the flop. And it certainly would have been the more standard play here. Since we were heads up, I wanted to see if I could really get a sense of where I was as I did not have a very strong read on this guy. The smooth call pre-flop made me think "draw". The Ace certainly worried me when it hit the board, but again, the opponent never played his own hand fast enough for me to know if I was beat for sure.
As for the river, option #1 is certainly preferable to option #2. I like the check-call, I do not like the check-raise-fold to a reraise option.