I hate this hand

bosoxfan · #1 09-12-2005, 03:17 PM

Party .50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 7 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, UTG caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.5 SB) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero calls.

River: (9 BB) K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ?

@bsolute_luck · #2 09-12-2005, 03:21 PM

in all seriousness, you probably should check/fold, but for sanity i'd check/call i guess. but that raise on the turn after capping preflop seems like a slowplayed set to me. he doesn't have the flush, but we're not beating any preflop capping hand unless villain is a retard.

MrWookie47 · #3 09-12-2005, 03:36 PM

You're basically hoping to chop here.

You lose to AA (1), JJ (3), QQ (6, but very unlikely w/o a read, so discounted to 0), KK (3, also unlikely, so discounted 1) = 5 hands. You chop with AK = 4 hands, but they should be discounted somewhat, too, since AK might raise the flop, so I'll give them 3 hands worth. 5:3 is just better than the 5:1 you are getting to call to chop.

closer2313 · #4 09-12-2005, 03:37 PM

I check/call here and see a set of aces or jacks here alot.

#5 09-12-2005, 03:43 PM

So is the consensus a crying check/call on the river?

DMBFan23 · #6 09-12-2005, 03:44 PM

I probably would have check called it the whole way.

Aaron W. · #7 09-12-2005, 03:49 PM

If you're going to check-call, why not bet-fold?

gharp · #8 09-12-2005, 03:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to check-call, why not bet-fold?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, without reads I could definitely see villain raising us out on the end with AK. I'd rather check-call.

closer2313 · #9 09-12-2005, 05:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to check-call, why not bet-fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been thinking about the difference between these river lines.

If he check calls his hand has to be good roughly 10% of the time because he will be risking one bet to win 10.

If he bet folds doesn't his hand have to be good 50% of the time for the bet to show a profit?

He bets and folds to a raise. He loses one bet when ahead and one when behind.

EV=.50(1)+ .50(-1)=0

Right?

So isn't this a situation for a check call?