Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Thirteen

[jedinite]

Last week was a nice turnaround from the mediocre results of the past three weeks, winning the game of the week and pushing on the #2 game meant a +1.9 unit profit on the week. The Dallas game was literally a coinflip (or the missed fieldgoal in the end of regulation) away from being a winner, and Arizona was in position to cover with the last play of the game, so overall it was a solid week with a positive result. As in years past, we're running very solid on the game of the week: with the 67% win rate, if you were purely playing five units (as suggested) on the game of the week, you'd be up approximately +18 units on the season (and even more if you're getting better lines than -110).

Last week: 1-2 for the week with a push on game #2 (Dallas +3). Win on game of the week.
+1.9 units on posted picks / suggested units for the week.
Season: 27-24 for the year (53%), 8-4 on game of the week (67%)

This week, recommending a standard 5-3-2-1 graduated play. As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog, but please lineshop aggressively.

Arizona -3 at San Francisco
The Cardinals have lost five of their past six. The 49ers, losers of their past four. Someone has to win this matchup of the two worst teams in the NFC. Rackers is out for Arizona, which actually will likely force them to depend on the kicker less and get in the endzone more. One fourth-down conversion in 49ers territory could be the difference in this game. Rookie QB Alex Smith is making his first start since suffering a knee injury October 23rd. Look for Arizona to use the safety blitz to get serious pressure on Smith, who is being protected by two rookie offensive linemen this week. The Cardinals will gun the ball downfield and force the 49ers to pass to play catch-up, and will be able to blitz Smith mercilessly in those passing situations. The Cardinals should be running rookie J.J. Arrington almost exclusively due to a neck injury to starting RB Marcel Shipp, which is actually an advantage for the Cards due to J.J. actually having some potential with his speed and quickness, compared to Shipp being fit to sit third string on a highschool team. Remember, Arizona dominated San Fran 31-14 in Mexico City on October 2nd this year. Cards QB Kurt Warner has also never lost as a starter against San Francisco (he's 5-0 lifetime against them). The 49ers are actually looking to start using their younger players a lot more, positioning themselves for next year (and trying to build a stronger draft position). As it stands right now, the 49ers would own the #4 overall draft position (Texans #1, Packers #2, Jets #3). There's a lot more value in the 49ers building for the future (and trying to win the Reggie Bush sweepstakes) compared to trying to win this game. Oh, and one minor detail: the 49ers lost their best offensive lineman last week (Jeremy Newberry) and will be forced to give rookie David Baas his first NFL start (they're moving right guard Eric Heitmann to center, Baas will play right guard). 28-17 Arizona. Game of the Week.

Detroit +3 (-125) vs Minnesota
The Vikings comeback from 2-5 to 6-5 has been an impressive feat, but I'm not a believer. Minnesota is still 2-4 on the road, and this one's in the Motor City. This is a battle of two bottom-feeding offenses: Detroit is #27 overall (#25 rush / #25 pass), Minnesota is #25 overall (#24 rush / #20 pass). However, there's a pretty significant disparity in defensive strength here: Detroit is #14 overall in defense (#25 run / #11 pass) versus the Vikings who are #28 overall (#15 rush / # 25 pass). Expect Detroit to try to run primarily outside the tackles with toss and stretch plays, as the Vikings have done a good job shutting down the middle this season thanks to Pro Bowl tackle Pat Williams. Detroit RB Kevin Jones has been upgraded to probable, and look for Dick Jauron to give Jones a lot more touches (he understands the need to get your top RB in the game and give him 20-30 carries). However, the Vikings porous secondary hasn't done a good job shutting down many opposing QBs. Jeff Garcia's added mobility against the Vikings pass-rush is a strong positive factor, and the talented Detroit receiving corp should have a big day. More importantly, Detroit's strong and dangerous secondary matches up well with the Vikings. The Vikes have been depending heavily on play action in their past few wins, and the big Detroit d-line should be able to shut down the run game and force the Vikes in to straight drop-back passes. Brad Johnson hasn't been good at stretching the field - he's primarily been checking off to 3- to 4-yard dumpoff routes, which lets opposing defenses jump the short routes and load up seven in the box to play against the run. Detroit will create two turnovers in this matchup (likely one interception by the speedy Lions secondary, turnover #2 could be a Vikings fumble). Finally, according to Sagarin ratings, Detroit should be a two point favorite in this game at home - which means according to that system there's a five point disparity in this line. I think this line is strongly being affected by public perception: a public perception with the average unsophisticated NFL bettor seeing a lot of strength in the Viking's recent wins despite the team actually being very mediocre. The game is split 75% - 25% in favor of the Vikings with Wagerline. However, Detroit is 7-3 ATS in the last ten meetings with Minnesota. This line isn't likely to move lower than +3, but you might see a reduction in the vig. This game is much more valuable at (-110) or etc. I also recommend a single unit moneyline play on Detroit to offset the vig if you're playing -120 or higher. Detroit 24, Vikings 21 for the outright win.

Kansas City +1.5 (-115) vs Denver
The Chiefs are 16-0 at Arrowhead in December since losing to the Colts in Week 16 in 1996. The Broncos are 4-11 in Arrowhead since 1990, and the Denver franchise has won only one of 17 games in Arrowhead in December. While Denver dominated Kansas City 30-10 at home earlier in the year (Dick Vermeil has never won as a Chiefs coach in Denver), KC dominated Denver in KC late last seaon, running up the score to a 45-17 domination. Denver is already 2 games up on the AFC West, while this game would be nice for them its not anything close to a must-win. And Denver is up one game, with tiebreaker on Cincinnati for the second bye spot behind Indy. So Denver can literally lose this game and it doesn't affect their standings at all: they're still #2 in the AFC and still #1 in the division regardless of what the other teams do. With Kansas City's remaining tough schedule (one of the toughest remaining schedule of teams in playoff contention) they've got to get this one at home or their season is over. Denver's offense is purely based off the run - they're the #2 rushing team in the NFL behind Atlanta, but they're only 21st in passing. The Chiefs are #5 in the NFL in stopping the run, and haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher all season and have only allowed five rushing touchdowns. Denver is the best in the NFL at stopping the run but is 28th in pass defense - KC's #5 ranked offense is #4 rushing and #13 passing. So while both teams are going to try to run, this game is going to be decided in the air, where Trent Green and the Chiefs have the edge, and where the Chiefs defense can aggressively blitz Plummer. In the game at Denver earlier in the season, the Chiefs were without Pro Bowl LT Willie Roaf - Roaf is back, and in fact had one of the best games of his career last year against New England. Roaf's presence should help KC tremendously, compared to the early-season matchup at Denver. This game is 63% Denver - 37% KC on Wagerline, which makes this another "fade the public" play. 31-27 KC for the outright win.

New Orleans +3.5 (-105) vs Tampa Bay
The Saints are a lot more talented than they appear on paper. The Saints usually play very well against the Bucs - the Saints lead the all-time series 17-9 versus the Bucs, and are 4-2 against Tampa Bay since the teams joined the NFC South. Each of those six games has been decided by seven points or less with the Saints taking the most recent encounter 21-17 last Dec. 19 in Raymond James Stadium. This Saints team also traditionally plays well late in the year - New Orleans has won six of their last nine games played in December and January under coach Jim Haslett. Saints QB Aaron Brooks also has a history of saving his best games for Tampa Bay The Saints also have an aggressive pass rush, which should be able to create serious problems for Chris Simms. The Bucs starting kicker Matt Bryant has a strained hamstring - Tood France was signed to the practice squad to kick if Bryant can't go. Either way, you've got missed fieldgoal potential all over the place. This game is split 82% - 18% in favor of Tampa Bay at Wagerline. 6/6 Yahoo experts have the Bucs here. That extra half point in there, off the three, has a lot of value with the strong Bucs defense likely making this a low-scoring affair. 17-14 Tampa for the Saints cover.

Tease of the Week
4-Team Sweetheart Teaser via Bodog: Detroit +16, Bengals +16.5, Saints +16.5, Chiefs +14.5
This tease has value in crossing wins on three, seven, ten and fourteen in all four games. While a Sweetheart teaser with its 5/6 payout isn't normally something I recommend, this is an attractive play this week moving these games across +14 where I consider this will have a near-certain chance of hitting.

[holeplug]

Great writeups as always but I have a little quibble since it seems your writing more about each game now.....paragraphs!! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[jedinite]

heh. i've lost the ability to edit the parent post, but here's paragraphs to make it easier to read:

Mods, if you want feel free to cut + paste below in to the parent and delete this post, but its no big deal.

============

Last week was a nice turnaround from the mediocre results of the past three weeks, winning the game of the week and pushing on the #2 game meant a +1.9 unit profit on the week. The Dallas game was literally a coinflip (or the missed fieldgoal in the end of regulation) away from being a winner, and Arizona was in position to cover with the last play of the game, so overall it was a solid week with a positive result.

As in years past, we're running very solid on the game of the week: with the 67% win rate, if you were purely playing five units (as suggested) on the game of the week, you'd be up approximately +18 units on the season (and even more if you're getting better lines than -110).

Last week: 1-2 for the week with a push on game #2 (Dallas +3). Win on game of the week.
+1.9 units on posted picks / suggested units for the week.
Season: 27-24 for the year (53%), 8-4 on game of the week (67%)

This week, recommending a standard 5-3-2-1 graduated play. As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog, but please lineshop aggressively.

Arizona -3 at San Francisco
The Cardinals have lost five of their past six. The 49ers, losers of their past four. Someone has to win this matchup of the two worst teams in the NFC. Rackers is out for Arizona, which actually will likely force them to depend on the kicker less and get in the endzone more. One fourth-down conversion in 49ers territory could be the difference in this game.

Rookie QB Alex Smith is making his first start since suffering a knee injury October 23rd. Look for Arizona to use the safety blitz to get serious pressure on Smith, who is being protected by two rookie offensive linemen this week. The Cardinals will gun the ball downfield and force the 49ers to pass to play catch-up, and will be able to blitz Smith mercilessly in those passing situations.

The Cardinals should be running rookie J.J. Arrington almost exclusively due to a neck injury to starting RB Marcel Shipp, which is actually an advantage for the Cards due to J.J. actually having some potential with his speed and quickness, compared to Shipp being fit to sit third string on a highschool team.

Remember, Arizona dominated San Fran 31-14 in Mexico City on October 2nd this year. Cards QB Kurt Warner has also never lost as a starter against San Francisco (he's 5-0 lifetime against them). The 49ers are actually looking to start using their younger players a lot more, positioning themselves for next year (and trying to build a stronger draft position). As it stands right now, the 49ers would own the #4 overall draft position (Texans #1, Packers #2, Jets #3). There's a lot more value in the 49ers building for the future (and trying to win the Reggie Bush sweepstakes) compared to trying to win this game.

Oh, and one minor detail: the 49ers lost their best offensive lineman last week (Jeremy Newberry) and will be forced to give rookie David Baas his first NFL start (they're moving right guard Eric Heitmann to center, Baas will play right guard).

28-17 Arizona. Game of the Week.

Detroit +3 (-125) vs Minnesota
The Vikings comeback from 2-5 to 6-5 has been an impressive feat, but I'm not a believer. Minnesota is still 2-4 on the road, and this one's in the Motor City.

This is a battle of two bottom-feeding offenses: Detroit is #27 overall (#25 rush / #25 pass), Minnesota is #25 overall (#24 rush / #20 pass). However, there's a pretty significant disparity in defensive strength here: Detroit is #14 overall in defense (#25 run / #11 pass) versus the Vikings who are #28 overall (#15 rush / # 25 pass).

Expect Detroit to try to run primarily outside the tackles with toss and stretch plays, as the Vikings have done a good job shutting down the middle this season thanks to Pro Bowl tackle Pat Williams. Detroit RB Kevin Jones has been upgraded to probable, and look for Dick Jauron to give Jones a lot more touches (he understands the need to get your top RB in the game and give him 20-30 carries). However, the Vikings porous secondary hasn't done a good job shutting down many opposing QBs. Jeff Garcia's added mobility against the Vikings pass-rush is a strong positive factor, and the talented Detroit receiving corp should have a big day.

More importantly, Detroit's strong and dangerous secondary matches up well with the Vikings. The Vikes have been depending heavily on play action in their past few wins, and the big Detroit d-line should be able to shut down the run game and force the Vikes in to straight drop-back passes. Brad Johnson hasn't been good at stretching the field - he's primarily been checking off to 3- to 4-yard dumpoff routes, which lets opposing defenses jump the short routes and load up seven in the box to play against the run. Detroit will create two turnovers in this matchup (likely one interception by the speedy Lions secondary, turnover #2 could be a Vikings fumble).

Finally, according to Sagarin ratings, Detroit should be a two point favorite in this game at home - which means according to that system there's a five point disparity in this line. I think this line is strongly being affected by public perception: a public perception with the average unsophisticated NFL bettor seeing a lot of strength in the Viking's recent wins despite the team actually being very mediocre. The game is split 75% - 25% in favor of the Vikings with Wagerline. However, Detroit is 7-3 ATS in the last ten meetings with Minnesota.

This line isn't likely to move lower than +3, but you might see a reduction in the vig. This game is much more valuable at (-110) or etc. I also recommend a single unit moneyline play on Detroit to offset the vig if you're playing -120 or higher.

Detroit 24, Vikings 21 for the outright win.

Kansas City +1.5 (-115) vs Denver
The Chiefs are 16-0 at Arrowhead in December since losing to the Colts in Week 16 in 1996. The Broncos are 4-11 in Arrowhead since 1990, and the Denver franchise has won only one of 17 games in Arrowhead in December.

While Denver dominated Kansas City 30-10 at home earlier in the year (Dick Vermeil has never won as a Chiefs coach in Denver), KC dominated Denver in KC late last seaon, running up the score to a 45-17 domination.

Denver is already 2 games up on the AFC West, while this game would be nice for them its not anything close to a must-win. And Denver is up one game, with tiebreaker on Cincinnati for the second bye spot behind Indy. So Denver can literally lose this game and it doesn't affect their standings at all: they're still #2 in the AFC and still #1 in the division regardless of what the other teams do. With Kansas City's remaining tough schedule (one of the toughest remaining schedule of teams in playoff contention) they've got to get this one at home or their season is over.

Denver's offense is purely based off the run - they're the #2 rushing team in the NFL behind Atlanta, but they're only 21st in passing. The Chiefs are #5 in the NFL in stopping the run, and haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher all season and have only allowed five rushing touchdowns. Denver is the best in the NFL at stopping the run but is 28th in pass defense - KC's #5 ranked offense is #4 rushing and #13 passing. So while both teams are going to try to run, this game is going to be decided in the air, where Trent Green and the Chiefs have the edge, and where the Chiefs defense can aggressively blitz Plummer.

In the game at Denver earlier in the season, the Chiefs were without Pro Bowl LT Willie Roaf - Roaf is back, and in fact had one of the best games of his career last year against New England. Roaf's presence should help KC tremendously, compared to the early-season matchup at Denver.

This game is 63% Denver - 37% KC on Wagerline, which makes this another "fade the public" play.

31-27 KC for the outright win.

New Orleans +3.5 (-105) vs Tampa Bay
The Saints are a lot more talented than they appear on paper. The Saints usually play very well against the Bucs - the Saints lead the all-time series 17-9 versus the Bucs, and are 4-2 against Tampa Bay since the teams joined the NFC South. Each of those six games has been decided by seven points or less with the Saints taking the most recent encounter 21-17 last Dec. 19 in Raymond James Stadium. This Saints team also traditionally plays well late in the year - New Orleans has won six of their last nine games played in December and January under coach Jim Haslett. Saints QB Aaron Brooks also has a history of saving his best games for Tampa Bay. The Saints also have an aggressive pass rush, which should be able to create serious problems for Chris Simms.

The Bucs starting kicker Matt Bryant has a strained hamstring - Tood France was signed to the practice squad to kick if Bryant can't go. Either way, you've got missed fieldgoal potential all over the place.

This game is split 82% - 18% in favor of Tampa Bay at Wagerline. 6/6 Yahoo experts have the Bucs here. That extra half point in there, off the three, has a lot of value with the strong Bucs defense likely making this a low-scoring affair.

17-14 Tampa for the Saints cover.

Tease of the Week
4-Team Sweetheart Teaser via Bodog: Detroit +16, Bengals +16.5, Saints +16.5, Chiefs +14.5
This tease has value in crossing wins on three, seven, ten and fourteen in all four games. While a Sweetheart teaser with its 5/6 payout isn't normally something I recommend, this is an attractive play this week moving these games across +14 where I consider this will have a near-certain chance of hitting.

[jedinite]

Discussing potential teasers with a friend, and realized that there are a lot of good games to be teased this week. As such, taking the following longshot, single unit wagered to win 25 units:

10 Team Teaser Bet Details

Cincinnati Bengals +9½
Houston Texans +14½
Dallas Cowboys +9
Chicago Bears -1
Detroit Lions +9
Atlanta Falcons +9
New Orleans Saints +9½
St. Louis Rams +9
New York Jets +16½
Kansas City Chiefs +7½

A 15/1 seven-point tease moving those 9 or 9.5 games to 10 or across to 10.5 has value as well, given that the push on the tease would keep it live but lower the payout. But I think the 25/1 is the way to go, those games in question should stay inside ten.

Yes, I know this is -EV. But its fun, and if it hits I'm buying another TV for my game-watching setup.

[Brad F.]

Very solid picks.

I've been betting on the Broncos like crazy this season, and they are doing quite well against the spread, but I think this week KC is the way to go... the line seems to be moving towards the Chiefs too so get it at +1 while you can.

I wouldn't be surprised to see you pull off a great weekend this week. Good picks.

Brad

[dankhank]

agree with you on a lot of these, hope they work out.

[jedinite]

Another teaser just because some of these lines are so far out there - one unit play:

(225) Houston Texans +21½ Sun@1:00p

(227) Tennessee Titans +28½ Sun@1:00p

(245) New York Jets +23½ Sun@4:15p

(248) Kansas City Chiefs +14½ Sun@4:15p

Moving KC across 3/7/10/14, Moving Houston across 10/14/17/21, Moving the Titans across 17/21/24/28, moving the Jets across 14/17/21

[jedinite]

2-2 on the week. +2.2 units with recommended plays on these games.
Win on game of the week.
Win on tease of the week (+3 units).

9-4 (69.2%) for the season on game of the week.
29-26 (52.7%) on the year on overall picks.

Another decent week but nothing spectacular. Still delivering consistent winning results on the game of the week, but both losses literally came down to the final drive so it was very close to the coveted perfect weekend.

Arizona -3 (win +5 units) at San Fran: Game pretty much as identified. Expected Arizona to convert one or two of those redzone attempts in to touchdowns to up the score, but Warner did have a huge day through the air (354 yards, but only one touchdown) and J.J.A. did have a decent day on the ground for an Arizona RB.

Detroit -3 (loss -3.75 units) vs Minn: Detroit was in position with a last-minute drive to win the game outright, but Garcia throws interception #3 on the goalline to put the game away for Minn. Last-minute announcment of Kevin Jones being downgraded to not play hurt, Detroit definately missed his rushing ability. Garcia looked pretty terrible at QB. Note that Minn scored 21 as predicted, and had Detroit managed to score at the end the final would have been 24-21 exactly as predicted.

KC +1.5 (win +2 units) vs Denver: pretty much as predicted. KC goes big through the air with 253yds and two touchdowns. Larry Johnson has yet another big day on the ground. Final score 31-27 as predicted.

N.O. +3.5 (loss -1.05 units) vs Tampa. Brooks intercepted in the end zone on New Orlean's final drive which would have been the game tying touchdown, giving us great cover potential as a Tampa field goal still wins for us. Low scoring as predicted, but didn't expect it to be as bad as 10-3. Four interceptions for Brooks was definately the factor, especially considering two were in the red zone.