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Old 07-24-2005, 12:10 AM
Beck Beck is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Denmark
Posts: 188
Default Do opponents bad play hurt me?

I know that in ring games I will eventually profit from my opponents mistakes, and that suckouts are just part of it.

But is the same entirely true in SNG's??
The reason for my question is, that I have gotten like a bazillion 4th and 5th lately. I have analyzed my pushes in SNGPT and, assuming *reasonable* calling ranges, my pushes have been correct.
However, they call with all sorts of crap. I play $22 and $33 and am amazed by their play, or rather the lack of skill in their play.

But back to my question:
Is it correct to assume, that even if my pushes are correct, when opponents make stupid calls which is negative $EV for them too, it only benefits the other players at the table.

Or are these thoughts just the result of being the victim of numerous 2 out suckouts? If what I'm experiencing now had happened when I first started playing, I would have quit after 3 hours....

On a related note, how often do you get ITM when only 4 left? And when 5 left?
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Old 07-24-2005, 12:25 AM
bluewilde bluewilde is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: DC
Posts: 372
Default Re: Do opponents bad play hurt me?

[ QUOTE ]
But is the same entirely true in SNG's??

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah

[ QUOTE ]
I have analyzed my pushes in SNGPT and, assuming *reasonable* calling ranges, my pushes have been correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

SNGPT is a kick-ass tool, but it's not perfect. Er...mathematically it's pretty darn close, but there's some room for human error. Maybe you're overestimating your opponents calling ranges and pushing in some spots where it's not as favorable as your SNGPT analysis has led you to believe. But there are "profitable" pushing situations and they work out over time.

[ QUOTE ]
However, they call with all sorts of crap.

[/ QUOTE ]

They call with crap you say? See "overestimating calling ranges" above

[ QUOTE ]
Or are these thoughts just the result of being the victim of numerous 2 out suckouts

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably, but don't think of yourself as the "victim." If you get all your money as a 95% favorite of course it's a good thing, give the man who called you a hug.

As to your general question, yes sometimes when the other guy makes an absolutely stupid play it hurts us, but that's opportunity cost. He can't only play bad when it's profitable for us, but the benefits seriously outweigh the costs.
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  #3  
Old 07-24-2005, 12:42 AM
Beck Beck is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
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Posts: 188
Default Re: Do opponents bad play hurt me?

Hence the word "assuming" I got the correct calling ranges.

But here's an example.
4 players left, each 2500 chips blinds at 200/400.
Hero is SB with KJs
Even with maniac calling ranges for BB, this is a +$EV push (+1,2%)

However opponent in BB is looking down at A7o. He knows Aces are good. He likes to play aces. He remembers that Hero has been pushing a lot, so is probably pushing with lesser hands.

A7o vs KJs is a 53.7% favorite, making it a +cEV play for villain to call, especially because of blinds. But acording to SNGPT it is a -$EV call. So neither Hero nor villain is benefiting $-vise from this call. Which means it only benefits the remaining two players.

I know that at other times we benefit from their poor play, but since we tend to push more than non-2+2'ers....
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