NHL thought / bet for tonight - Page 2

Yads · #11 12-21-2005, 05:54 PM

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No doubt they are a great defensive team, but I just don't see how they can keep pace with their lack of offense. Especially in this new NHL. Eventually they are going to have to start scoring.

There is no way in hell I would lay -141 on Calgary tonight. It's way to much chalk for 2 teams that are pretty evenly matched. It is either LA or nothing.

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Not to be a homer, but the line is probably pretty close to true line. The flames and Kipper played poorly the last game, they are going to come ready to play tonight. Also LA is now missing Roenick, not like he was playing well, but I think he adds a lot of leadership in the dressing room.

gomberg · #12 12-21-2005, 06:01 PM

Right - i didn't mean to imply I was testing... I'm just placing a bet / gambling with what I think is a small edge. I do keep all my bets and reasons in a database - so in a couple years when I have some sample size on this, I'll let you know the results [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I've only been betting on sports for about 6 months now, and it's been interesting so far. Poker is way more lucrative for me but I like the work and research that goes into sports betting so it's a fun side hobby.

As for my results thus far, I've been pretty down on just handicapping games, but WAY up on futures bets and divisional champion, series champion bets. The future bets play to my strength of analyzing situations and seeing the public bias on certain teams (baseball playoffs were way off this year).

Anyway, as far back as I can remember with the hawks, whenever the captain or coach has an outburst with young players, they play better for a couple weeks. Then when they suck again and get yelled at again, the effect is usually minimized. Since this is the first time something like this has happened this year for a very young team, I'm banking on them playing better than usual tonight and maybe for a couple more games.

#13 12-21-2005, 07:11 PM

considering aucoin hasn't played in a week, I'm not sure it carries as much weight. and that he's -4 with 1 goal and 5 assists.

#14 12-21-2005, 09:48 PM

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Yeah, personally I don't see the Kings beating the Flames. The Flames will be upset over the loss to the Oil and will be ready for this one. At home with Kipper in goal...I'd take the Flames.

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Last moment injury update: Conroy out for the kings.
BUT, Suave is in net for Cal.

gomberg · #15 12-21-2005, 11:33 PM

Oh well - looks like the hawks bet sucked.... if only the owners would play the home games on TV, I'd be able to at least watch my money go away [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

#16 12-22-2005, 12:25 AM

don't know where that "suave in net" came from. got it from a formerly reliable source.
kings were without conroy, belanger, roenick, and miller (after the 1st period).
bad news for calgary.

TheRake · #17 12-22-2005, 12:33 AM

Well glad I stuck with my gut feeling on that one. Went with LA against everyones opinion. Working on a nice 4-0 night if Edmonton can pull one out. Got a wild one going in Vancouver right now.

20Five · #18 12-22-2005, 01:22 AM

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Well glad I stuck with my gut feeling on that one. Went with LA against everyones opinion. Working on a nice 4-0 night if Edmonton can pull one out. Got a wild one going in Vancouver right now.

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good stuff TheRake, you seem to really be finding 'value' in some of these games where as most others are just taking games they like.. I like the approach, hope the results keep up..

GL!

TheRake · #19 12-22-2005, 02:09 AM

I honestly believe you can't beat the books if you are always on the favorites. It's not to say there aren't times when the favorite is the way to go. But just because you were on the winning side one night doesn't necesarily mean you were on the right side. The idea is to try and find "live dogs". Tonight I had LA as a -102 favorite so getting +131 looks like a huge overlay for me. Even if my numbers are off a little I have room for error. I also had Edmonton as a +112 dog, but I picked them up at +140 so I had some nice wiggle room on that one too. It doesn't always work out the way it did tonight, but I can win less than 50% of my picks and still make money.

The other thing to watch is that the juice is usually on the favorites because that is the way the public bets. So when you bet favorites you are already losing $.10 (give or take)in value on your pick. That's my impression anyway [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

craig r · #20 12-22-2005, 02:15 AM

What reason do you have to think the juice is always on the favs? If a line was -120/+110 wouldn't the "fair line" be 115 (either way)? I am not saying it is that black and white, but I doubt if all (or most) of the juice is on the -140 of a -140/+120 bet. In fact, there is a good chance, especially with a 20 cent line, that neither side is very good because of the juice.

craig