Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

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This isn't one of those situations, seeing as when he calls, you'd have to be a 65% favourite against his range. Unless you consider the $EV you pick up when you win, and can bully the bubble, is worth it. I personally don't think it is here.

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I could easily have mixed things up, but I thought this sub-thread was now talking about the same question from the point of view of the short stack. (I don't think you're talking about the short stack calling, because winning wouldn't allow him to bully the bubble.)

Edit: Yep, I'm confused.

[tigerite]

Oh, I see what you mean. If Hero folds and the SB calls/moves all-in or whatever? Hmm, that is a more tricky decision.

I think the small blind should be pushing over the min-raise with a wide range of hands (easily including AQ) even though the big stack is nearly 100% to (correctly) call.

[tigerite]

Oh, definitely. I think his range should be pretty wide here. I'll have to ICM it to find out how wide.

[Postiga]

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Have you not noticed the SB is actually shaving off 150 of his stack in this hand, so he's down to virtually a third of your stack anyway?



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I took it to mean that he had 700 after posting. If not, then I'd feel a lot better about folding. I probably would fold in fact.

But if he has 700 after already posting the blind, it still feels like a raise to me. Someone said I was making it sound as if the short stack was a favourite to finish 3rd. Well to me you're arguments make it sound as if we're guaranteed to finish 3rd if we fold.

Is it possible that ICM can be wrong? I would trust my intuition over a computer program that can't possibly be perfect.

Lastly, I'm well aware that I'm making the short stack a huge amount of money by going all-in here, that doesn't mean that I'm not making money for myself at the same time.

Edit: Of course, you're right tigerite, the stacks add up to 10,000. I completely stand by my analysis though.

[Winwood]

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...its a $55 buy-in.

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This makes a big difference. You can tell I'm an 11 player [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Big stack has been minraising often and generally folded when played back at. But no one's really played back at him in this blind level (because of the shorty)

He doesn't need to be 65% when called. He's got more than enough fold equity to make pushing with AQo correct 4-handed. It's tempting to fold into the money here, but in light of the above read, I'd come over the top here most of the time.

[tigerite]

You seem to have missed

I think its pretty likely he'll call here a push here. When he was getting played back at previously, the stack to blind ratios were higher.

[sofere]

So how often do you think he has to fold for this to be profitable then? Someone said 40% but I think thats really too much.

[tigerite]

A lot. At least 25%, and I think 33% is probably more like it.