Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

sofere · #1 12-13-2005, 10:27 AM

At work so doing this from memory, but its pretty clear in my mind.

Big stack has been minraising often and generally folded when played back at. But no one's really played back at him in this blind level (because of the shorty)

Blinds at 150/300
Stack Sizes before blinds:
CO 4500
Hero 1700
SB 700
BB 3100

Hero Dealt AQo
UTG minraises to 600.

If pushed to I instafold here. Is there any way I can play this hand here?

#2 12-13-2005, 10:29 AM

I move all in here everyday and twice on sunday. The blinds are starting to eat you up, and I think most often you're up against either a mid pair or more likely an A worse than yours.

sofere · #3 12-13-2005, 10:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think most often you're up against either a mid pair or more likely an A worse than yours.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or about 35897683 other hand possibilities...his range is really wide here

Postiga · #4 12-13-2005, 10:43 AM

If the BB calls he halves his stack, so I don't think he's calling with live cards a lot. If the SB calls you're probably dominating or 50/50. I'm delighted to go all-in here.

tigerite · #5 12-13-2005, 10:57 AM

Eh? And what about if UTG calls, which he will, like, 99.9% of the time?

Are people just not reading the action, or what?

tigerite · #6 12-13-2005, 10:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I move all in here everyday and twice on sunday. The blinds are starting to eat you up, and I think most often you're up against either a mid pair or more likely an A worse than yours.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be absolutely horrendous to go all in here if UTG put 22 face up and said he was going to call you if you push. How can you not know this?

tigerite · #7 12-13-2005, 10:59 AM

As for me. Well, obviously, this is a fold most times. There is however one caveat. If you push and beat UTG, you now become the big stack with a micro stack to act after you, whom you can keep alive by folding your SB to his BB, all the time pushing the other two over him so they have to fold. However, this depends on SB being at least sensible and not a bloody idiot who will call your next push with any Ax or whatever. But to be honest the bubble probably won't last long enough to make this increase in future +$EV worth it, so you should probably fold here.

Postiga · #8 12-13-2005, 11:01 AM

Crap, I read it as hero was UTG and it was he who min-raised. But, I don't think the big stack is calling a reraise anythink like 99.9% of the time, and if he does call, I like how AQ fares against his hands. Also, I don't want to end up getting to heads up with 2000 chips against the big stack.

tigerite · #9 12-13-2005, 11:02 AM

Oh dear. People, please, understand ICM and stop posting this kind of stuff.

He will call the vast majority of the time. That's all that matters.

Postiga · #10 12-13-2005, 11:13 AM

I'm sorry but I have to disagree, I think he's folding quite a lot, even if he's wrong by doing so. And if he calls I think I like the probability that he has Ax. Lastly, I hate folding into the money. There's no guarantee that if you fold you'll even make the money. You only have twice as many chips as the short stack, and you'll get the blinds before he does.