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#21
10-13-2005, 11:23 AM
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Re: Is this type of move part of your game?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] this smells. why is this guy betting 450 into a 300 pot? [/ QUOTE ] Because he sucks and wants to 'buy' the pot and doesn't have a real hand that he thinks he can make a lot of money from. [/ QUOTE ]If this thinking is correct, shouldn't a good player sometimes overbet with a set? 
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#22
10-13-2005, 11:25 AM
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Re: Is this type of move part of your game?
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I am somewhere between the second and third option. [/ QUOTE ] What percent of the time do you have to succeed to do this with a truly air hand? Obviously when you get called you basically have zero pot equity. Any time your ICM $EV > 0? How much cushion do you want to give yourself? You can never be entirely sure of your opponents call range.
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#23
10-13-2005, 11:25 AM
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Re: Is this type of move part of your game?
only if he knows his opp is the kind of player that would see this overbet as weakness and try to steal the pot
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#24
10-13-2005, 11:28 AM
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Re: Is this type of move part of your game?
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If this thinking is correct, shouldn't a good player sometimes overbet with a set? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, it's a very smooth move that nails people in mid-high limit cash games since they love picking off weird overbets on relatively dry boards; but at a low-limit SNG you need to know you have a LAGgy playmaker behind you who can read a board, or you're losing value (that is if you have the 9).
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#25
10-13-2005, 11:33 AM
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Re: Is this type of move part of your game?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] this smells. why is this guy betting 450 into a 300 pot? [/ QUOTE ] Because he sucks and wants to 'buy' the pot and doesn't have a real hand that he thinks he can make a lot of money from. [/ QUOTE ]If this thinking is correct, shouldn't a good player sometimes overbet with a set? [/ QUOTE ] I believe it was Lorinda that showed a bunch of examples where she moved all-in overbetting the pot, w/ monster hands (AA preflop, sets on the flop) and got called by extremely marginal hands thinking they were picking off bluffs, I have started to do this at the lower levels (22s. 33s) and it has been working with some success.
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#26
10-13-2005, 11:35 AM
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Re: Is this type of move part of your game?
[ QUOTE ]
If this thinking is correct, shouldn't a good player sometimes overbet with a set? [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] only if he knows his opp is the kind of player that would see this overbet as weakness and try to steal the pot [/ QUOTE ] This is why regular games can be so much fun, you get into this third level thinking. Online at my limits I don't see people enough to know what they are thinking. You can get a sense of whether they are any good or not but rarely more than that.
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#29
10-13-2005, 12:00 PM
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Re: Is this type of move part of your game?
[ QUOTE ]
Ive been picking off some bluffls lately (river especially) where I will raise (90% sure I am ahead) all-in after they bet, say 600. mY raise is 200-300 more and they actually fold! (2000+ in pot) this has happened 3-4 times in last couple of days and one thing about picking off a bluff is that if you think they are on one, your FE doesnt matter...they will fold. NH [/ QUOTE ] one of these was against me Im pretty sure, I called the flop and turn and raised the river less than all in trying to represent like I wanted a call and you pushed but I still had 400 or so behind so I folded and I ended up busting you later when you pushed in with 4 6 or something [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#30
10-13-2005, 12:22 PM
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Re: Is this type of move part of your game?
I feel like, at the lower levels against donks, you're getting called too often with hands like 33 and AJ to make it +EV (although even then, it might be +EV, but marginally so). A donkey open-complete can mean anything, IMO - I'm not surprised if this play gets called by a donk AK-A10 or a mid/low pocket pair.
I don't hate the play, either - but I've seen one too many donks open-complete with AJ (thinking they're slowplaying it), only to call off their whole stack whether or not the flop hits their hand or not. I'd only use it if I had a some confidence in a read. For what it's worth, I couldn't agree more that the bettor there almost never has a 6. If this is a $22-$55, I like the play more. So to answer your question, I would only use it against players I thought were mediocre; I'm scared of good, solid players overbet-trapping with a 9, and I'm scared of complete donks calling with crap/having a 9 and giving no thought to bet sizes --> relation to the pot.
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