SNG question

[naphinfitos]

This happend when a friend of mine was 8 tabling 6.50s on pokerstars. I think when the hand took place he was still in 4 of them.

4 players, hes in SB.

Chip counts
sb=1400
bb=440
UTG=6000
button=5660

Blinds were 200/400 with a 25 chip ante

Both the tall stacks fold unfortunately, and SB has 82o. He folds, rather than investing the 215 chips necessary to take a shot at cashing. I assumed it was a misclick from playing 4 tables, but he said it was a conscious fold, and he always folds terrible hands there. Another friend of mine agreed with him saying that he probably folds any 2 cards under 9 except for suited/connected/PP. Am I crazy or is this an absolute must call against a random hand?

[Sabrazack]

Ooo, i love bad multitablers. This fold sucks bad. Really bad.

im lost here. why is it correct to play the 82o?

[citanul]

because he's going to be investing 215 chips to win 200+415 more. his odds are way, way too good to fold.

c

[playtitleist]

... and to a much lesser extent, folding leaves shortie with neary ~t700. when he makes the right move on the next hand and pushess with any two and gets the right call from the BB and wins the hand and doubles up, Hero is now behind.

Point being, you can't EXPECT shortie to simply get blinded out of the tourney. You have to take the odds and not give him a free pass.

[UMTerp]

82o is 36.80% against a random hand.

Using ICM:

If fold - Stacks = 1175 - 715 - 5975 - 5635
Equity = 16.94% of prize pool

If call and win - Stacks = 1890 - 0 - 5975 - 5635
Equity = 26.31% of prize pool

If call and lose - Stacks = 960 - 930 - 5975 - 5635
Equity = 14.00% of prize pool

If call - Equity = (.368)(26.31) + (.632)(14.00)
Equity = 18.53% of prize pool

To illustrate how bad this fold is, it costs you $0.86 (.1853-.1694)($54) in this $6.50 SNG. Even if you are a 13% ROI player (and judging from that fold, I'm guess your friend isn't), you've just pissed away your entire theoretical profit for this SNG with this one fold. It's that clear cut.

BTW, there are better uses for one's poker time than 8-tabling $6 SNGs unless it's some type of bankroll recovery method.

[splashpot]

Show your friend this thread and see if you can convince him that the fold is terrible. My guess is that you can't.

[naphinfitos]

He is an avid 2+2er, so I think Im gonna let him find this on his own.