Awful, just awful.

Pokey · #1 05-27-2005, 02:24 PM

I feel like my play here was attrocious, but I'm not 100% sure where I should have played differently. I've been sucking spectacularly at the tables lately. Any help is appreciated.

TAA is the villain in this story: 19% VPIP, 5% PFR, 5.75 AvgAgg mostly on the flop, sneaky bastard with a check-raise statistic of an unheard-of 21%, all over about 100 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Pokey is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB (TAA) completes, Pokey raises, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls, SB (TAA) calls.

Spectacular, creative play on my part, raising AKo. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Flop: (10 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
TAA bets, Pokey raises, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, Button folds, TAA calls.

Thinning the field with a great drawing hand.

Turn: (8 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
TAA bets, Pokey calls, UTG+1 folds.

Calling with implied odds and the possibility that TAA is betting overs.

River: (10 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
TAA checks, Pokey checks.

Final Pot: 10 BB

Is there such a thing as a "crying check"?

Emmitt2222 · #2 05-27-2005, 02:26 PM

I'm folding the turn. Your implied odds can be considered to be canceled out when you don't know if you are reverse dominated, I think...

eleventy · #3 05-27-2005, 02:31 PM

I've been 'slowplaying' these type of hands from blinds lately. I feel obligated to bet any flop like you did. If I hit I can then usually checkraise. I vary this of course. How bad is not raising prflop?

brettbrettr · #4 05-27-2005, 02:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I've been 'slowplaying' these type of hands from blinds lately. I feel obligated to bet any flop like you did. If I hit I can then usually checkraise. I vary this of course. How bad is not raising prflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

This strategy is really bad. Betting a missed flop with AK after you neglected to raise pre-flop is bassackwards.

eleventy · #5 05-27-2005, 02:43 PM

I don't bet if I miss. Just if flop hits me go for checkraise or bet/3bet if I can. This gets extra bets in when I have a good hand and doesn't leave me feeling a have to bet a bad flop after I miss and OOP.

I've been feeling kinda lost when flop misses me, same as OP I think.

Catt · #6 05-27-2005, 02:44 PM

Fold the flop. You have terrible relative position; the flop is coordinated; you're drawing to at best 6 outs, more likely 4 outs; and quite possibly 2 or 3 outs. You can't call with all those to act behind and a suited connector on the board "in the zone." Raising is not good here. If SB had checked would you bet your AK into this field just because you raised pre-flop? (That would be a mistake).

AK is a great hand pre-flop and often very good post-flop. This board sucks for you, and SB betting into you makes it even suckier. Just fold and move on to the next hand.

LinusKS · #7 05-27-2005, 02:57 PM

You said you were "thinning the field with a great drawing hand," but you have a weak drawing hand, not a great one.

You have 6 outs, minus the times somebody has a flush draw, minus the times somebody has you reverse-dominated, minus the times your K makes somebody else a straight.

Betting into four opponents with that board is a big mistake, I think, and raising into them is not much better (though better, I think, than betting).

On the turn I think you've kind of locked yourself into a call. You did knock out three players on the flop - which is good - but it means you're getting 9:1 odds for a draw that might be as good as 6.7:1. It may not be that good, but against one player, who may be semi-bluffing a flush draw, you have to call.

I check the river, because I don't think he'll fold a better hand often enough to make a bet profitable.

I'd be interested if someone thought different, though.

Pokey · #8 05-27-2005, 03:19 PM

Catt and LinusKS: I hear your criticisms about the flop bet, and I think they have merit. Here's my thinking: please punch holes in it as needed.

On the flop, TAA's bet could mean many different things. If it's a bet on drawing power, my hand could easily be stronger than his. If it's a made hand, I've got six outs to beat it. I could easily be a strong contender (less than half, but still strong) to win against TAA's hand heads-up. However, with a full field of four opponents, I don't stand a chance. That means calling is a horrible idea. That leaves folding or raising. My raise will face the entire field with calling two cold; if I can fold two or three of them, my winning chances improve DRASTICALLY, and I think enough to make the two bets +EV. Folding a 5 or 9 here would be a huge coup for my hand, and could easily happen in this situation. Flush draws probably aren't folding, but TAA's bet makes it less likely that one of the other three players has a flush draw in diamonds.

I considered it a risk well worth taking to clean up outs in a situation where I could easily be ahead of TAA's hand right now, but where I'm probably behind someone in the field. If I got raised, I could fold this hand immediately. With more than two callers, I fold to a single turn bet. However, I think this play buys me the button more than 2 in 11 times, and at that point I could be ahead of my opponent with position.

So: where are the flaws in my reasoning? Like I said, I'm not trying to be argumentative -- just trying to fix my leaks.

miami32 · #9 05-27-2005, 03:32 PM

I in all honesty think you all are wrong. I hope I don't offend anyone by saying that either. But here is the plain and simple truth. You have 5 players in a raised pot preflop. The pot is large. If the pot was small his flop raise would have been incorrect with the two diamond and cordinated board. But you have to raise with your six outter on the flop because the pot is large. On the turn he had odds to call one bet and if he didn't hit on the river he can fold. You can almost make a case for him to bet on the end though because the queen obviously scared the other player and sacrificing one bet for the chance to win the I believe 12 big bet pot is well worth it.

Catt · #10 05-27-2005, 03:56 PM

Fundamentally, I don't think it likely that you have 6 outs. Even if you do presently have 6 outs to the best hand and an A or K hits on the turn, you are open to all sorts of redraws. The pot is large as it was raised pre-flop, which means that even though you are facing the field with 2 cold, all behind you are getting 6.5:1 or better to call which is more than enough for a wide range of hands to call your raise. Add to this that your read on Villain is TAA, and he is leading into the PFR and a field of 5. You have to credit SB with a solid hand or a decent made hand combined with a very strong draw; since he loves the check-raise, I think it would be somewhat more likely that he check-raises the field if he is on a pure flush draw (expecting you to bet when checked to). I'm all for doing what I can to greatly increase my chances of taking down a large pot, but you're playing an extremely weak drawing hand with a high likelihood of people calling or raising behind you, being three-bet on the flop and lead into on the turn, or being stop 'n goed on the turn. The hand spells trouble, and you need an amazing parlay of events to come out smelling good in this hand -- each time the parlay breaks down, you're caught pushing a fair number of bets into the pot.

You say you could fold the hand easily if it is raised? What would the raise tell you that would convince you to fold? That you no longer have 6 outs or something else? Because let's say that someone behind you raises instead of calls, TAA calls, and it is 1 bet back to you with 18 in the pot and you're closing the action -- you're folding? Or let's say that two people call behind you instead of one, a blank falls on the turn and you're bet into -- the pot is now laying you 10:1 to call and you will easily fold this hand now (but won't fold it with only one behind you and getting 9:1? You played the flop in a way to almost completely tie you to this hand until the river, and you did so on a very weak drawing hand on a board that sucks for your overcards.