Bravery or stupidity?

Pokey · #1 05-18-2005, 07:12 PM

I'm fairly new at the table, but it's clear that this guy is a huge table bully. His stats:

Maniac has a VPIP of 71% and a PFR of 49% with an AvgAgg of about 2 after 50 hands. I'm not sure if that's enough to qualify as an According-To-Hoyle "Maniac," but it's sure close enough in my book.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Pokey is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Pokey raises, 2 folds, SB (Maniac) calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Standard.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Maniac bets, BB folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, Pokey calls.

Not a perfect flop, but one I can certainly live with. There's no way I trust Maniac's bet, but I see no compelling reason to raise heads-up. If he wants the driver's seat on this one, let him have it.

Turn: (6 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Maniac bets, Pokey calls.

I still feel that it's likely I'm ahead here, and Maniac is simply trying to buy the pot. I give him one more chance to make a bluff.

River: (8 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Maniac bets, Pokey raises....

Blank river, bluff raise. Hopefully, Maniac will lay down a pair of fours or fives, or pocket 2s or 3s. I feel the raise is +EV; thoughts?

damaniac · #2 05-18-2005, 07:21 PM

Your logic seems kind of contradictory. On the turn, you figure he's most likely bluffing. On the river, you decide you want to make him fold a pair. If he doesn't have a pair, you have him beat but 1) he'll often fold to your raise, where you gain nothing or 2) if he truly is a maniac, he'll 3-bet, and you don't really want to put in 3 bb's on the river with A high, although you pretty much have to. You also don't really give anything in the description that makes it all likely he is capable of folding a pair. If he goes crazy without a pair, my default is he usually isn't folding when he does have a pair.

I re-read your post and realized he isn't totally crazy (numbers-wise anyway) postflop. Absent anything specific, I still like calling the whole way.

Once it becomes HU, just commit to calling down UI. Your A (and K) high will be good more than enough (plus your chance of improvement) to show a profit here.

Bigdaddydvo · #3 05-18-2005, 07:21 PM

I think the maniac looks you up. Call if you don't think he has anything.

New001 · #4 05-18-2005, 07:46 PM

I don't think he's folding anything that beats you here, but depending on the maniac, he might call with things you beat. If you've seen him call down with A high and K high and the like, I don't mind this so much, but you have to do it because you think your hand is good.

Getting 3-bet would really suck too. I just call the river and expect to win a fair percent of the time.

Jules22 · #5 05-18-2005, 08:03 PM

seems a little too fancy, i like just calling

Bill C · #6 05-18-2005, 08:09 PM

His PFR is 49% yet he just calls preflop so he must really not have a lot in his hand. The flop doesn't look like much either, though I guess he could have a ten or maybe a flush draw or small straight draw. I think I'd have been tempted to raise him on the flop, since you raised "slick" preflop, and represent a big pair, just to see what he does with it, planning to call if reraised, based on your read of him being a maniac.

From there I'd just call him down. I don't think I'd raise the river.

You won't always win these, but you'll win a lot of them.

bill