WA/WB with 99?

Pokey · #1 05-11-2005, 03:36 AM

So, ol' Pokey sits hisself down at the tables and after two orbits finds a middle pocket pair staring him in the face. The table's fully fishified, and the small blind is no different: 44% VPIP, 4% PFR, AvgAgg 1.29 in the form of 0.75 / 1.33 / 0.00 on the flop, turn, and river (based on only 25 hands, but fairly informative nonetheless).

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Pokey is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, Pokey calls, 2 folds, SB (Fish) completes, BB checks.

With two limpers in front of me, I'm clearly not going to get heads-up or short-handed with this one, so I go into hit-to-win mode and limp. If it had been one limper in front, I might have raised. If I opened the action, I definitely would have raised. As it stands, I limp in and hope for a flopped set.

Flop: (5 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Fish bets, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, Pokey calls.

Disturbing flop. On the one hand, there are no deadly overcards that sink my nines. On the other hand, we've got about as much coordination as you can imagine, with the board showing a three-flush (that I can't fill) and three to a straight. Against strong action, I fold this flop without hesitation; instead, SB bets and everybody else folds. Heads-up with position and five dead bets in the pot: I'm willing to chance the flush or straight. My feeling is that if SB is betting a small pair or a draw, he's got 2-9 outs against me. If he's betting a flush, straight, or set, I've got 0-2 outs against him. Wanting to maximize the relative value of the dead money, I decide to just call. If the turn is ultra-scary, I can fold; if it's a miracle card, I can raise; if it's blank, I can call and delay the decision to the river.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Fish bets, Pokey calls.

Well, that was useless. A blank card hits, but SB keeps at it. Since a fish is betting, I fear that I'm beaten, but he could be continuing with his draw or (more likely) pair....I call to see the river.

River: (5.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Fish bets, Pokey calls.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

Another blank and another bet. At this point, I figure I'm likely behind, but my nines up are good often enough that 6.5:1 odds look like a long-term winner. I see no value bet here, but I see no reason to fold.

Results in white below: 
NO RESULTS FOR YOU, ONE YEAR!
In poker, results-oriented thinking is self-defeating.
If you want results, try Trim Spa.
That porker Anna Nicole seemed to benefit from it.

shant · #2 05-11-2005, 03:41 AM

I raise this preflop against only 2 limpers. I don't think 99 is a hit-to-win hand. I don't see a problem with raising this flop. Since you didn't, when that safe card hits the turn, why not raise?

Pokey · #3 05-11-2005, 03:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I raise this preflop against only 2 limpers. I don't think 99 is a hit-to-win hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heads-up, I agree. Four-handed, I don't think an unimproved pair of 9s isn't going to cut it -- you've got to hit.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see a problem with raising this flop. Since you didn't, when that safe card hits the turn, why not raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Heads-up, I didn't see a need to raise the flop. If I'm ahead, it pushes him off a losing bet, and if I'm behind it just costs me more money. On the turn, the same thinking applied -- I saw no reason to fold a weak hand or to feed a monster. If I'm behind, a raise on the turn costs me at least as much as calling down to the river -- more if I don't fold a reraise. If I'm ahead here, a raise on the turn loses the opportunity to snap off another bluff bet on the river.

I may be wrong in this thinking, and this may be ultraweak tight, but that was my thinking. Berate me if necessary. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

brazilio · #4 05-11-2005, 03:50 AM

I think you need to make a much longer post about why you didn't raise preflop, and why you didn't raise the flop or the turn. Make sure it's filled with incorrect and useless details.

shant · #5 05-11-2005, 03:58 AM

What about protecting yourself against overcards?

wrto4556 · #6 05-11-2005, 04:06 AM

The raise preflop is pretty standard. Nines are holding up more than enough.

I don't mind the flop, but i'm raising the turn. You are most likely ahead. On the flop the fish could have something like K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] which you are about even money with. I would give up on that small edge to exploit a larger one on the turn.

After raising, I don't take the free showdown against a fish.

bakku · #7 05-11-2005, 04:09 AM

You're basically almost never going to be way ahead/way behind with 99.

wrto4556 · #8 05-11-2005, 04:15 AM

Actually, i've been thinking about my first response and im not sure. I think it's close between raising the flop and raising the turn...calling down is our worst option, imo.

Fnord · #9 05-11-2005, 04:22 AM

Raise Pre-flop.

o 99 wins more than it's fair share, even 4 way.
o There is a good chance you'll buy the button (unless there is a serial cold-caller remaining to act.) Having the button after a pre-flop raise will often get you a free 4rth card when the flop is unfavorable. Winning more pots g00t.
o You can often pick up Axx flops on the flop (if called you can pick between firing again or taking a free river.)

Raising pre-flop changes the whole texture of the hand. As played, you must raise the turn.

wrto4556 · #10 05-11-2005, 04:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Raising pre-flop changes the whole texture of the hand. As played, you must raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool.

I started argueing with myself that cheap info on the flop would be better because we are against a passive player leading into a field.