not so sure about this hand

yvesaint · #1 11-17-2005, 07:20 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP ($406.50)
Button ($121.60)
SB ($697.50)
BB ($573.60)
Hero ($1192.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $16, 3 folds, BB raises to $28, Hero calls $12.

Flop: ($58) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $75, Hero calls $75.

Turn: ($208) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $75, Hero calls $75.

River: ($358) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks

alright im 99% sure he has an overpair, other 1% is reserved for the rare times he has AK

my 7, 8, and clubs are all good outs

how do i maximize value? he will probably go to the felt with even 88 here, so i didnt feel like raising flop/turn was gonna do me any good, especially with the great price he's offering me on the turn

i definitely think he will pay off, even if he has like TT and the Ac falls

he called a re-raise from button with AJs against my KK and went all-in on a 9TT flop with his draw and spiked an A

how much do i bet on river? he's got about pot left

AllIn3High · #2 11-17-2005, 07:28 AM

I'd go with half pot, you didn't exactly hit the most welldisguised of your draws. I doubt most sane players are paying off with their entire stack here with an overpair.

I like your play on both flop and turn.

yvesaint · #3 11-17-2005, 07:30 AM

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I'd go with half pot

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are you at my table or something???

oh yeah. you are. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

AllIn3High · #4 11-17-2005, 07:59 AM

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I'd go with half pot

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are you at my table or something???

oh yeah. you are. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I didn't see this hand go down tho [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

GG, don't really feel like playing 3 handed vs. you and some unknown.

yvesaint · #5 11-17-2005, 08:01 AM

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I didn't see this hand go down tho [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

GG, don't really feel like playing 3 handed vs. you and some unknown.

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i got absolutely card. dead. after you joined. playing with 2+2ers = bad mojo

Morrek · #6 11-17-2005, 08:09 AM

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he will probably go to the felt with even 88 here, so i didnt feel like raising flop/turn was gonna do me any good, especially with the great price he's offering me on the turn

i definitely think he will pay off, even if he has like TT and the Ac falls

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I would still raise this flop, but failing to do that, the turn is good unless you think you can push him off a clearly better hand(seems no). River standard is as you probably know ~half-pot but I guess you can "make a play" and "bluff the scarecard" with an allin if you think it'll work semi-often(as you seem to be thinking, so why not?)

AllIn3High · #7 11-17-2005, 08:21 AM

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I would still raise this flop, but failing to do that, the turn is good unless you think you can push him off a clearly better hand(seems no).

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I think you have very low fold equity on the flop, after that overbet I think he'll be willing to go to the felt w/ his.

Morrek · #8 11-17-2005, 08:23 AM

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I think you have very low fold equity on the flop, after that overbet I think he'll be willing to go to the felt w/ his.

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Hmm, yes , didn't notice it was an overbet... what do you think of a push here, then? you can't really hope for much better flops than these with SCs in raised pots, and you must have some fold equity then?

yvesaint · #9 11-17-2005, 08:30 AM

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I think you have very low fold equity on the flop, after that overbet I think he'll be willing to go to the felt w/ his.

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Hmm, yes , didn't notice it was an overbet... what do you think of a push here, then? you can't really hope for much better flops than these with SCs in raised pots, and you must have some fold equity then?

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this guy is not folding an overpair (my read, though of course can be wrong, maybe he plays different with full buy-in or more)

and i just ran the numbers, it's still an absolute coinflip against an overpair .... with this im still not sure whether waiting to hit since i know exactly his holdings is better than trying to raise somewhere on the flop

Morrek · #10 11-17-2005, 10:06 AM

If you really think he'll pay off max even if the draw hits, then ofcourse the right play is call/call/allin flop/turn/river but as previous poster said I doubt he is. So when do you want the money to go in? When it's a coinflip(flop) is +ev ofcourse, although maybe not by very much... But what if he pots it on a blank turn? you fold?
As played I doubt you'll get more than 1/2 pot more out of him, which is good considering what you paid but still, I wouldn't count on him giving you those odds on the turn everytime, hence a raise on the flop to either gain a freecard or get it allin right there would be better overall.

Oh and I really doubt he'll call allin on the flop with 88 99 and possibly TT, think of it from his donk perspective: you raised pre and called his reraise, then go allin after his overbet on the flop for another few hundred. That's quite alot of strength right there