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#1
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
what a crazy result.
I think I disagree with betting the turn though. if bb will check through the turn (and since she freakin folded the river I'm guessing that's a distinct possibility), then we probably should to go for the free card. consider this - which is a bigger mistake for button to make? a)not raising the turn b)not betting the turn The answer is clearly B, since she's ahead and allowing us to draw for free to beat her. The problem with leading the turn is that we don't give her the opportunity to make that mistake. I guess the real question is - if she makes mistake A 85% of the time here, and makes mistake B 15%, is it worth the bet that denies her the opportunity to make mistake B in order to "disguise our hand"? I don't think so. we're not trying to outsmart her. We're trying to rob her. ... and how much of a hand reader is she anyway? is it really worth passing on the chance at a free card when we're drawing and she's got top pair? |
#2
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
mistake a = mistake b.
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#3
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
[ QUOTE ]
mistake a = mistake b. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. Mistake A implies passivity, but does not offer a free card. whether our hero makes the bet or calls it, the price remains the same. Mistake B offers infinitely better odds than mistake A for drawing hands to catch and take the lead. |
#4
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
You can disagree for reasons other than expectation. But from an expectation standpoint the mistakes are exactly equivalent. And that's all that really matters.
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#5
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
here's an excellent thread over in SSSH that deals with this concept brilliantly.
the underlying concept here is that inflating the pot even when you have neutral equity is -EV when you have to peel again on a whiff. It doesn't apply directly to this turn play, but abstractly I think the thought process has merit. In this example though, betting the turn is only correct to the extent that --button would not have raised or checked through the turn and --button would have called a bet on the river if you had bet the turn, but would not have you had check/called it. |
#6
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
I never said hero should bet the turn. I was simply pointing out that from button's point of view calling a bet instead of raising is no less of a mistake than checking instead of betting. Button's equity is what it is and she misses the same amount of value with either mistake in this hand. I think the turn check by hero is fine here though.
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