Turn Raise

[Octopus]

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Then there's the semi-bluff angle as well.

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2. I think villain is more likely to have a pair here than a draw. With the rag that fell on the turn, I think the chances of him folding an 8, 9 or some small pp are slim to none.


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Not much of a semi-bluff if he'll almost never fold. In order for a semi-bluff to be good here, (assuming he'll never 3-bet and that he is currently ahead) he needs to fold about 20% of the time right now. Given your desciption, I don't think he'll ever fold right here with a better hand. Plus, worse hands have 4 outs or fewer.

There may be a free showdown play here (I am a little skeptical, but I am open to being convinced.) But as a semi-bluff I think this is wrong.