What winning % should I expect at heads-up SNG??

[Cry Me A River]

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much more post-flop play (this is an understatement), much more read-dependent play - as with tactical decisions regarding specific hands, and strategical ones regarding specific opponents.

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Yeah, I kinda said that...

A couple other observations about Head's Up tourney's (I'm really enjoying them this week-end!)

You do play an awful lot of hands compared to "normal" games. A Head's Up tourney is easily worth 5 or 6 times the "experience" of a regular SNG/MTT of equivalent length (though I still think that experience doesn't fully translate 100% to other structures). If you have any passivity problems, Head's Up tourney's will cure ya (unless you hate money...). Head's Up tourney's will also work on your trapping/slowplay skills as well as your ability to avoid traps (Though it's not that tough when donkey pushes all-in into a T100 pot). An awful lot of games have a rythm like:

Steal/Steal/Steal/Fold/Fold/Steal/Fold/Steal/TRAP!/Steal/Fold/Steal

Where you basically pass the blinds back and forth until you both get a hand. Pot size management is key, particularly in marginal situations. Hands like middle-pair with flush draw, low-pair with broadway kicker become extremely important for chipping away at opponent's stack particularly with reasonable semi-bluffs and drawing hands with a lot of outs to improve on later streets (particularly hands that if they improve will punish villain - ie: A river ace that gives you 2-pair to your opponent's pair of aces). Perhaps the biggest flaw in the monkey's Head's Up game (besides general passivity, particularly PF) is the overbet bluff, exspecially if the entire rest of the tournament his bets have been reasonable when he's had a hand.

Comebacks from <T500 (at the $20 buy-in level) and less are very, VERY possible so never give up! Most players don't know how to close - They don't pressure the shortstack enough (particularly blind stealing) and they'll happily call your ATs all-in with JTo or Q3s. And once you've made it back to ~even it almost becomes inevitable that villain tilts his stack away.

There is a bit of an adjustment if you go back to regular SNG's - You play so many hands Head's Up you'd never touch in a regular SNG and you're so much more aggressive it's easy to turn LAG when you go back to full table games.

[Rubber Soul]

Thanks for all the posts... Especially the longer detailed ones... I have now played close to 100 HU matches and my win percentage is about 61%, which seems O.K... I have had problems closing out matches and I think a small adjustment may up my win percentage back up to the 66% range in the long run...

[SNOWBALL138]

do you play on full tilt? NL heads up games there were pretty weak. I only played about 20. I played some 20s, some 50s, and some 10s.

[Rubber Soul]

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do you play on full tilt? NL heads up games there were pretty weak. I only played about 20. I played some 20s, some 50s, and some 10s.

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No, I've been playing at UB because the rake is favorable.. What is the rake at FT??? Can you work off any deposit bonus money playing those Heads-UP tournament games at Full Tilt? I have never played there...

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[curtains]

I suspect one's win percentage on stars at higher levels would have a hard time exceeding 56-57%. btw one interesting thing you might want to know is that you can ask pokerstars for a complete summary of every single 1k headsup match that was played in the last few months. I did this like a year ago and basically got the stats of every player at the 1k headsup matches (I had a lot of time on my hands back then). Almost no one had a win rate of above 56-58% over 200 or more matches.

[PrayingMantis]

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btw one interesting thing you might want to know is that you can ask pokerstars for a complete summary of every single 1k headsup match that was played in the last few months.

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Hmm, this IS interesting. I wonder what kinds of other "unpublished" interesting information you can ask and get from pokerstars, or other sites for that matter?

[curtains]

I'm not sure if they would do so anymore. I got the entire results of every single multi for a 6 month period and found the results interesting at the time (some players who were thought of as big winners were basically break even or down money after like 500-1000 multis.)

[Mr_J]

I agree you can slaughter the lower limits. Player are so bad it's very entertaining. If I was sure I could make 66% of what I make at full sngs then I'd switch to HU. Profit is more important than job satisfaction right now so maybe I'll just look at it again when I can afford to bum around.

"particularly if you can average 30 mins a tourney."

???? Ok most of mine were $10s but an average of 12-15mins seems pretty realistic (I averaged less). Haven't had anything go past level 2, and the only way I think it could is if you got shortstacked early or were up against a good player.

"I've yet to have a Head's Up tourney turn into a Party-style all-in fest"

After picking up 500 or so of their chips I've reguarly had opponents then moving all in on me preflop.

"Given that it should be a lot less likely for you to drop a bunch of buy-ins, you probably don't need as big a bankroll as for 10-player SNG's."

For sure. Placing 60%+ of the time has much less variance than placing 40%. 20 is probally enough at lower limits.

"Variance: I keep going back and forth on whether variance should be better or worse"

Much better because it's much lower. You also don't need as large a sample size to draw the same sort of conclusions as at full.

"So it'd be difficult to get the kind of hourly rate as would be found at $200 full table SNG's."

I'd think about HU cash games if the mid-higher buyins aren't doing it ($105+).

"The big downside is that specialising in Head's Up tournaments is going to help your overall poker game even less than regular SNGs. Or is it?"

Much more.

"and if anything Head's Up tourney's may be more formulaic"

No.

[Rubber Soul]

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I suspect one's win percentage on stars at higher levels would have a hard time exceeding 56-57%. btw one interesting thing you might want to know is that you can ask pokerstars for a complete summary of every single 1k headsup match that was played in the last few months. I did this like a year ago and basically got the stats of every player at the 1k headsup matches (I had a lot of time on my hands back then). Almost no one had a win rate of above 56-58% over 200 or more matches.

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That's an interesting statistic (the 56%-57%range)... I wonder if the same holds true at other sites?

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[Rubber Soul]

I have now played 200+ heads-up sng's at $10 and my win rate is 58.5%... I think I can maintain that win percentage and I'll probably move up to $20 once I build my bankroll up... Thanks again for for all the detailed posts... Any more would also be welcomed...