TPTK scary board 50/100

[schwza]

rizen checks and villain checks. here's the river action. i'll post some thoughts after the hand is done.


hero has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. 9 handed.

Pre-flop:

Hero raises to 250. 5 folds. button calls. 2 folds.

Flop (board: Jd Qs Tc) T650:

Hero bets 450. button calls.

Turn (board: Jd Qs Tc 2c) T1550:

Hero checks, button checks.

River (board: Jd Qs Tc 2c Td) T1550:

Hero?


villain has 3360 left.

[MLG]

I see 0 (well very little, he could have KQ) value in betting so I check something, probably call, although I think a blocking bet is ok. If we were deeper like with 5k each I'd bet 800 on a block and fold to a raise, here though im not confident I can bet fold.

[Roman]

I see literally 0 value in a bet here, most hands that call the bet will value bet themselves (well occasionally someone till try to snap off a bluff with AJ and very rarely 99)

This is a terrible flop...and out of position, you need to be careful here. I think I would put another bet out there...maybe pot. Your opponent wouldn't be sticking around with this flop unless he hit it. My guess would be a pair and a straight draw, possibly KQ or KJ. He probably doesn't have JQ because I would imagine he would raise you on the flop to define his hand. He could be slow playing AK but I would expect a re-raise pre-flop. I think it's safe to assume you have the best hand right now, but i'd be ready ot dump this if he raises or if a scare card comes on the river.

[Rizen]

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Because I'm nowhere near the caliber of player as you Rizen, I'm sure you could find fault in my line. I think the line I proposed above is a solid way to control the pot. Then again, mine is dependant on villian playing along.

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I appreciate the compliment, but this is flawed thinking. I don't play mistake free poker and probably never will, although it is my goal. I appreciate any feedback anyone has to offer, and I've actually found that sometimes less experienced players can give great advice because I, at times, tend to overthink things, when sometimes the simplest answer can be the best.

-Rizen

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I see literally 0 value in a bet here, most hands that call the bet will value bet themselves (well occasionally someone till try to snap off a bluff with AJ and very rarely 99)

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here was my response to rizen before making the thread:

i would have bet the turn. there are too many hands that you really don't want to give a free car to - most notably KT, KJ, QK, but also T9, J9, Q9. if you get raised on the turn, you fold with some confidence you're in bad shape.

given that you checked the turn, i think you have to bet the river and fold to a raise. Q9, J9, Qk, JK, AJ are all still waiting to give you some value. i'd be surprised to see a set or two pair check behind on the turn, so i think you'reahead of everything but Tx (AK might check the turn though).
if you do get raised, i think you can fold because no worse hand is going to raise for value and it would be a very dubious bluffing spot for villain to pick.

[Rizen]

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I see literally 0 value in a bet here, most hands that call the bet will value bet themselves (well occasionally someone till try to snap off a bluff with AJ and very rarely 99)

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KJ AJ KQ all call but don't bet.

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I'm not sure this is right. KQ probably calls a value bet, AJ and KJ certainly do sometimes, but not all the time. I also think some of these hands (especially KQ) would bet when checked to at least some of the time.

-Rizen

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I see literally 0 value in a bet here, most hands that call the bet will value bet themselves (well occasionally someone till try to snap off a bluff with AJ and very rarely 99)

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KJ AJ KQ all call but don't bet.

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I'm not sure this is right. KQ probably calls a value bet, AJ and KJ certainly do sometimes, but not all the time. I also think some of these hands (especially KQ) would bet when checked to at least some of the time.

-Rizen

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why would KJ/AJ bet? that would be a pretty dumb bet. to move you off specifically AQ/KQ? to get value from 99?

[Rizen]

[ QUOTE ]
why would KJ/AJ bet? that would be a pretty dumb bet. to move you off specifically AQ/KQ? to get value from 99?

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You're right, if villian is a thinking player they'd never bet KJ or AJ. I've been playing too many of the Party supers I guess where this sort of horrible move happens regularly.

-Rizen

[Rizen]

My specific thoughts on the hand:

Flop: TP/TK on the flop after raising PF seems like a no brainer bet. Flop is scary, but I'm ahead most of the time, and I really don't want to give a free card, so I put in a bet. Seemed pretty straightforward to me.

Turn - On the turn with my stack size I wasn't really sure that I wanted to create a big pot out of position on that board after villian calls the flop. While it's true that sometimes I will give up a free card that will beat me or allow villian to outplay me here I feel this is one of those situations where the chips you lose are a lot more valuable than those you win. To me the most likely scenario if I continued to play this hand fast was to win a small pot or lose a big one.

River - While I will concede that I might lose a little value from KQ/KJ/AJ here, I gain value from the times villian has weaker holdings that were on a draw that he might bluff at me with (AT/KT/99/Ax).

6 months ago I would have played a hand like this pretty fast and I actually think it was a leak. Villian's holding in this particular case was KJo and I probably missed a little value. I think the times I lose a little value on his holdings though is outweighed by the times I spew a large amount of chips with a huge stack in relation to the current levels.

-Rizen