AKs EP, pick up draw on turn, empire 55r

[Sam T.]

No way I'm trying for the CR. Shove it on in there on the river, and get called by KJs.

[schwza]

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I will occasionally check this to them, but the thing is that most hands he's likely to bet here are also pretty likely to call a bet on my part.

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i'd be surprised if villain bets anything but a K here. he's got to have enough of this board to want a free showdown if i give it to him.

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I think he can call 1200 with a fairly wide range of hands, whereas a push I think he'll only call with a K.

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agreed. do you think he pushes with a K? if so, then it's a no-brainer to bet 1200.

[gumpzilla]

I think he'll frequently, though not always, push with a K. The stacks are short enough relative to the pot that even a thinking player might believe that you're forced to call with less than a K, but that's up in the air. (EDIT: A player who is not very good probably thinks "Holy [censored], I have a K, I just owned this guys face off, push push push push push," so you can count on him to get it in. I don't know which this guy was.)

Pushing to extract the max from a K and sacrificing the rest of his range is giving up some money, I think. What hands with a K are plausible to have gotten this far that are also making that little minraise on the turn? Is he calling you PF and on the flop with KJ? It's not unheard of but it would be mildly surprising. So I think he's going to have a K somewhat rarely, but I don't have a good concrete range to put forth for him at the moment. And, as mentioned above, I think he will push with a K when he does have it often enough to balance this out even if he does show up with a K more often than I expect.

[ansky451]

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No way I'm trying for the CR. Shove it on in there on the river, and get called by KJs.

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[schwza]

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No way I'm trying for the CR. Shove it on in there on the river, and get called by KJs.

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i wasn't debating bet vs. check, because like i said in another post, i think only a K bets. i decided to bet 1300 and he called.

your read was way off. he had KJo and i wish i'd shoved. i was impressed/surprised that he only called the river, and i was definitely surprised that he called preflop with KJ (and to some extent the flop).

[Rizen]

I think PF and flop are pretty straightforward. Arguing over the flop bet is kind of nitpicking, and anything between 200-300 is a good c-bet IMO.

On the turn I either bet an amount that is very close to pot sized or I check/push. His min-raise is interesting. I don't see you getting away from this hand here, and his min-raise is probably either super weak or super strong. In all honesty I'm not really sure what the right move is there, but I probably take the easy way out and call as well (not that calling is wrong, but it just feels so dirty).

Once you hit your hand on the river I probably shove rather than try a value bet with the stack sizes and board. I don't know that a K pushes over the top of you, and with that board I think that a push might look like a bluff or weak two pair often enough that you'll get called. I certainly think any hand he would call 1200 with he would call your shove with at least half as often.

-Rizen

Shameless plug for my poker blog:

http://rizenpoker.blogspot.com

No, I don't think he pushes w/ a K. You should push, you get called by a K and likely any hand that was good up to that point since the push could look to him like you simply wanted to represent the K.

[intheflatfield]

I push here w/ the Qd hitting on the turn. If he was drawing to a straight, or even if he hit it, he as to be concerned about the flush, and if he was also on the flush draw, he's dominated. I think I a mini-bet here just gives villain the opportunity to hijack the hand.

[schwza]

i think he has a lot of 2 pair hands like T9, JT, J9, QT that will call 1/2-pot but not full. he may even find a fold with a set. he calls (or raises) 1/2-pot almost 100% given the action to here and often will raise a K. (my calling the turn raise should make AK unlikely in my hand). so we need him to call a push something like 60% i'd guess, and i think he can find a fold with most of his 2 pair hands.

[schwza]

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On the turn I either bet an amount that is very close to pot sized or I check/push

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interesting, you and ansky said the same thing. why do you like full pot over 3/4-pot? my thinking was "ok, just keep value betting the 'AA,' nothing out of the ordinary here."