empire 55r JJ facing raise

[adanthar]

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Because you have jacks, KJ is unlikely, and AK usually reraises, so only KQ is a likely hand here (actually since it's Empire, they're all unlikely). I don't terribly mind checking, but I bet specifically because I don't want to deal with that kind of turn.


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huh? i don't get that whole paragraph.

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Put them all on hands real quick on the flop and you'll see only KQ is likely to be out. Add in Empire being full of rocks and none of them probably have a king between them.

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He either has QQ or TT, with a slight but significant chance of AK/air

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i think a missed c/r flush draw is possible. i also think that air is less likely than you do. AQ/AJ/AT will sometimes perk up and take a stab here.

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AQ on this board with that many people in *is* air.

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So you check, a king comes, and MP1 bets. He either has QQ or TT, with a slight but significant chance of AK/air.


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This has to be too specific. Everyone checked the flop and the board paired the turn; he definitely does this with AQ/AJ a good % of the time, and probably does it almost every time with AQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], AJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

[schwza]

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Add in Empire being full of rocks

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thanks, that's what i thought you meant, but i wasn't sure. there are sat's to this, not sure how much it matters in a rebuy since a satellite qualifier might not rebuy and therefore probably wouldn't get deep.

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AQ on this board with that many people in *is* air.

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yeah, i would say A hi with no draw is air. i was saying air often bets there, including, for example, AQ.

[schwza]

thanks for the kind words. the problem i have with raising - and this may be a dumb mental block - is that pushing JJ basically turns it into 22. sure, there will be the occasional call from TT, and 22 is drawing dead vs 99, but they're basically the same. so i feel like pushing is "wasting" my pretty good hand. so maybe the line of reasoning should have been something like: raising is better than calling, raising here is like raising 22, and i would turbo muck 22 if i got here somehow. therefore fold.

Wait, who is going to bluff you out on the river? Only real scare cards are spades, diamonds, Qs, and As. That's like 20 cards (not including the Js, Jd). And your opponents don't have to have flush draws or an unpaired Q or A in their hands. I'd like to hear more about the argument for folding on the turn. Even though i'm a weak tightie, I'd call the turn bet. You said it yourself, almost every hand that MP1 holds that beats you on the flop will bet the flop. Same for MP3. The SB might've been going for a checkraise w/ a king or a set, but more often than not, after you call the turn bet, MP3 will fold, SB will fold, river will come, and MP1 will probably check everything you beat, including AQ air, on the river. If he bets river, then you'd probably have to fold. But I think you're ahead on the turn a good % of the time. Am I missing something here?