88 Live at the Bike. 30/60

[golferbrent]

Its absolutely a tough decision... one that you put yourself in by bloating the pot preflop. If you don't bloat the pot preflop... then the decisions are probably clearer and the action not as intense.

My thought would be that maybe the SB doesnt put so much action in if you don't make the pot big preflop. Once the pot becomes big preflop the SB is going to try to do everything possible to take the pot down.

My thought was that if you could accurately diagnose a hand range for UTG then we would be in better shape to make a proper decision. Im not sure if CSC has an accurate read on UTG. My thoughts are that I would love to make the call on the turn and then based on the river make a more accurate decision on the end.

IE-- if an A or heart comes we can comfortably fold. However, once we call the turn are we obligated to call the river w/n reason?? I'm not advocating calling 2 cold say on the river, but if we commit on the turn... does that commit us to calling on the end??

[dankhank]

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My thought would be that maybe the SB doesnt put so much action in if you don't make the pot big preflop. Once the pot becomes big preflop the SB is going to try to do everything possible to take the pot down.

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he has to bloat the pot preflop because he has to three-bet with 88. i see nothing wrong with preflop, and the SB coming along can be seen as nothing but good too, if CSC has a strong read he's trailing with a dusty five. in fact SB's actions can even be used to clarify where UTG is at...

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IE-- if an A or heart comes we can comfortably fold. However, once we call the turn are we obligated to call the river w/n reason?? I'm not advocating calling 2 cold say on the river, but if we commit on the turn... does that commit us to calling on the end??

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of course being last to act on the river is part of the turn call. if you get a bet and a call back to you regardless of river card, it sounds like CSC can make a tough fold. if it's a blank and there's a bet and a fold, easy call. many variations to the river action, but lots of clear decisions. and you get there for one bet, so i don't see why you'd mess with a good thing by raising or folding.

[golferbrent]

I agree that with the SB action on the hand that UTG's hand range should be clarified. However, I haven't seen any speculation from CSC about what he put UTG on. I think the decision on turn revolves around what you put UTG on and whether you can beat that.

If you put him on something you can beat then I think a call is in order... but CSC has made all of the decisions difficult in this hand. Not that the decisions wouldn't be hard no matter what... any mid pair is tough to play.

I am in no way advocating to absolutely folding on the turn... but the decision to fold or call I believe is probably not very much + or - EV. My analysis revolves around if we do call... can we in good faith fold on the river? Or are we obligated to call the river once we call the turn?

[CardSharpCook]

I had UTG on...

PF: 99-KK, AK/AQ

Flop: 99-QQ, AK/AQ

Turn: 99,TT,QQ, AJ/AhKh/AhQh

In my mind, I had him on TT though. That seemed to be his most probably holding. AJ shows up in my range on the turn. I think that is OK though. If you can't make any changes to the original range you put someone on, you'll run into trouble.

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I had UTG on...

PF: 99-KK, AK/AQ

Flop: 99-QQ, AK/AQ

Turn: 99,TT,QQ, AJ/AhKh/AhQh

In my mind, I had him on TT though. That seemed to be his most probably holding. AJ shows up in my range on the turn. I think that is OK though. If you can't make any changes to the original range you put someone on, you'll run into trouble.

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I put the UTG on the exact same range, live passive players would play all these hands the same way based on my experience. This is why I said I think folding the turn is the right move. You are a 15-1 underdog against the UTG's range, and you are getting 14-1 pot odds to call, so just from this information alone you should fold the turn, but if you also factor in that the SB will have you beat 5-10% of the time since no read is 100% accurate, and that even when you do happen to have both these players beat you will still get rivered approx 33% of the time, Thats even more reason to fold this turn.

Heres a little more math to show that folding is correct, since you are a 15-1 underdog against UTG's range, you will be ahead of him 6.25% of the time. Lets assume your read on the SB is 95% accurate, so you will be ahead of the SB 95% of the time. Now the probability of you being ahead of both these players is (6.25% x 95%) = 5.94%, but even when you are ahead 5.94% of the time, your hand will only hold up 67.4% of the time since you will get rivered 32.6% of the time. So the probabilty of your hand being the best and also holding up is (5.94% x 67.4%) = 4%. If we convert this 4% into pot odds, you will need pot odds of 24-1 to call. If we assume you will make 4BB on the river if you hit your hand then you would only need 20-1 odds to call, since you are getting 14-1 to call, folding is the right move.

[golferbrent]

I agree... I like your read on the turn... A-J seems to be somewhat likely. However, the way he played it--I would put him on exactly what you put him on 9-9 or 10-10. The way it looks... he has read the SB as weak as well and is stuck in call down mode.

The question on the turn would be do you think you can get him to lay down the best hand. With him calling 2 cold on the turn you have to put him on a hand which beats you.

My question would be how do you characterize UTG's play? Is he weak, TAG, ?? Just curious how that influenced your range adjustments.

I would like to say that I think this discussion has been very good. It has been a long time since we have had some thoughtful discussion on the mental thought processes and decisions that a player was going through street by street.

This street by street thought analysis is what really helps our game improve unlike the "he's a 34/14 vpip player". That really doesnt lend a lot to the discussion, but this type of discussion lends a lot more. Hopefully we can continue to spark great discussion in the medium forum and the high limit posters will be mad that they separated us!! LOL!

[golferbrent]

Westley--
Love the analysis this is great stuff. Could you PM me the calculations you went through to calculate these percentages. Thanks!