errrrrrr?

[Jason Strasser]

Well this is fairly important, and imo the decision to call fold comes down to (obviously) how often this type of opponent is going to have a 2, FH, or maybe straight here. If you are going to go out and make this strange read on the opponent I'm not sure what exactly you are looking for out here. Even trap happy opponents understand they need to make big pots w big hands.

To everyone else who posted in this thread i think the key pt is that this call with AK is virtually the same as with AA. So get your head around that if you are like "OMG he CALLED W ACE HIGH"

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree. I think durr is probably looking at a 2 or FH more than his analysis suggests.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, I agree with this.

It's fine to sit here afterwards and agree with your analysis (which looks pretty good), but at the end of the day, he played it exactly like a not-great player would play a set when sat with semi-deep stacks. There aren't that many opponents on Party who are firing again on the river here with nothing. Unless you have a read on him as extremely agressive, I'd toss it.

Ah, I dunno. I'm going insane thanks to a creaking pipe. Gnight!

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]

To everyone else who posted in this thread i think the key pt is that this call with AK is virtually the same as with AA. So get your head around that if you are like "OMG he CALLED W ACE HIGH"

[/ QUOTE ]

hey strassa, you've made this point before and I've agreed with you before. I think understanding bluffcatchers - ie Ace high = AA is important. but there's one minute detail maybe to consider;
the fact Durr holds both Ace and King of the flush draw on board a. makes it less likely (albeit small %) villain is bluffing that draw, and b. the small % of times villain thinks he's bluffing (like a small pair somehow) which AA does beat but AK does not.

Still, on the whole, I agree with what you say.

[durrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

To everyone else who posted in this thread i think the key pt is that this call with AK is virtually the same as with AA. So get your head around that if you are like "OMG he CALLED W ACE HIGH"

[/ QUOTE ]



hey strassa, you've made this point before and I've agreed with you before. I think understanding bluffcatchers - ie Ace high = AA is important. but there's one minute detail maybe to consider;
the fact Durr holds both Ace and King of the flush draw on board a. makes it less likely (albeit small %) villain is bluffing that draw, and b. the small % of times villain thinks he's bluffing (like a small pair somehow) which AA does beat but AK doesnot.

Still, on the whole, I agree with what you say.

[/ QUOTE ]I think i was wrong in my earlier post... I should have said AK is good > 90% of the time that AA is good, not 95%. I think the hands are very similar tho.

[Allinlife]

I understand what strasser is trying to say, but I think you have to factor in the times when people call with things like mid pair/bottm pair in position to catch 6 outers against likely "high pair hands" and bluff straights and flushes

I'd say if AA is good 100%, AK is good 80%ish

[TheWorstPlayer]

I agree with this completely. Give Hero A3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and I like this call better. The fact that he has the K of trump, too, is a fairly strong factor against villain having the flush draw. These guys love to call preflop with hands like KQs and KJs KTs. What's he supposed to have here? QJs? You having the K really cuts down on the options.

[punter11235]

[ QUOTE ]
K of trump

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] heh do you play bridge TWP ?

[EnderW27]

I've read the thread so I know the results. But here's a bit of analysis. I'm doing top of the head math as one would at the table rather than seriously calculating this out.

First, let me turn it around a bit.
Given his trips on the turn, I think he made a mistake in the amount of his raise on the turn. Either you have a high pair or you're on a flush draw, one of two possible out there. So he knows for certain he's ahead right now and if you have a high pair you're coming along for the ride no matter how high he raises. But if you're drawing his raise just priced you in to your draw, getting what? 3-1 on your money for the call?
So I think the amount of his turn raise is too low.

But you probably don't care about that. So let's talk about the river. To call his bet he needs to have whiffed his hand ~35% of the time. That's about the price we're talking about, right? 1700 to win 4700. What are the chances?
You raised PF, fired away on the flop, fired again on the turn and called his raise! To me that says "I have something and you're not chasing me away that easily." If I were your opponent I would not be firing in the last of my stack in this situation on a total bluff 35% of the time.

Here's my point:
Maybe you had a good understanding of how this opponent worked and he would make that play but I think a bluff here has to be -ev and therefore I think a call here hoping your opponent is on a total bluff must also be -ev.

[durrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
but I think a bluff here has to be -ev and therefore I think a call here hoping your opponent is on a total bluff must also be -ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

This part of your reasoning is way off. Doesnt mean your wrong...

He played bad, that was a main part of this- i could call a good player w/ AK here b/c they could be bluffing w/ 78/9T etc.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Of course, but that expression is used fairly widely on here, I think.