Michigan State -4 1/2 @ Purdue POTW#10

[MyTurn2Raise]

My POTW is Michigan State - 4 1/2 @ Purdue
I'm going with the large consensous on this one (at least according to wagerline) and they're right. It's simple; there is absolutely no way for the Boilermakers to stop Drew Stanton and the Spartan offense. Purude is giving up 330 passing ypg. Purdue as resorted to using converted receivers and such as DBs. It's ugly and it's getting worse. Purdue scores this year are below and show how bad the D really is:
Sat, Sep 10 Akron W 49-24 Audio
Sat, Sep 17 at Arizona W 31-24 Audio
Sat, Sep 24 at Minnesota L 35-42 Audio
Sat, Oct 1 (8) Notre Dame L 28-49 Audio
Sat, Oct 8 Iowa L 17-34
Sat, Oct 15 Northwestern L 29-34 Audio
Sat, Oct 22 at (14) Wisconsin L 20-31 Audio
Sat, Oct 29 at (10) Penn State L 15-33 Audio

For those counting, that's 6 straight games of over 30 and all 8 opponents scoring 24 or more against the Boilers. While the Purdue offense has shown some signs of life, they still turn the ball over way to much and fail to convert enough redzone possessions into tds.

The Spartans have recovered from the blown fg to end the half in Columbus finally. Of course, having Indiana at home helped. But, a defense that caters to their every wish will have the Spartans looking like the team that went blitzkrieg over Notre Dame, Illinois, Michigan, and Indiana. (Do Illinois and Indiana count? Yes, If you're comparing to Purdue's D.) This game will most likely be a 38 to 20 yawner for the Spartans.

Next week, toilet bowl II-Purdue and Illinois. And y'all thought the Illinois-Indiana game was bad.

My POTW#10 is Michigan State -4 1/2 @ Purdue
FYI- I'm 6-3 on POTW picks
I'm 13-6 on 2+2 NCAA recommendations

Other picks from me this week:
Ohio State -34 v Illinois
Arizona +9 v UCLA

[kyro]

I'm 0fer in Big Ten Games. But sure, you're convincing me. I'm staying away from the OSU game after the Wisconsin debacle where your team actually put up a fight, though OSU will now win by 50. I can't win.

*edit* So I put a unit on MSU because you told me to even though MSU will probably crap the bed on any game I don't bet against them. Also put .5 units on BC (-6/+112) at UNC. I feel like the public is going to look at UNC's good game against Miami and overvalue them against BC, ignoring the fact that Miami is just really overrated and probably should be ranked in the teens. They have played one decent team (FSU) and lost to them, so I'm not all that impressed. BC by at least 7.

Also threw on a half unit on Northwestern to win outright at home against Iowa. Think the odds were +130ish. Once again, I think public perception thinks NW has just been lucky. I think they have a decent chance to rebound with a win here.

Do not take any of my analysis seriously. I am a losing bettor and am doing this for fun. I am hijacking MTTR's thread for the sole reason that I agreed with him on a pick last week and we lost, so this is his punishment [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I'll be at this game today. I feel like Purdue has mailed it in for the year. Mich. St. is inconsistent enough to let Purdue hang with them and possibly even win though. I'm staying off this game, but Mich. St. looks like a decent bet to me. Both these teams are too difficult to figure out for my taste.

[MyTurn2Raise]

apologies to all...
Why did Michigan State not try to throw the ball the whole game?
Actually, Purdue owned that game by more than the score. I broke my rule of never betting on Jekyll&Hyde...I mean Michigan State.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
*edit* So I put a unit on MSU because you told me to even though MSU will probably crap the bed on any game I don't bet against them. Also put .5 units on BC (-6/+112) at UNC. I feel like the public is going to look at UNC's good game against Miami and overvalue them against BC, ignoring the fact that Miami is just really overrated and probably should be ranked in the teens. They have played one decent team (FSU) and lost to them, so I'm not all that impressed. BC by at least 7.

Also threw on a half unit on Northwestern to win outright at home against Iowa. Think the odds were +130ish. Once again, I think public perception thinks NW has just been lucky. I think they have a decent chance to rebound with a win here.

Do not take any of my analysis seriously. I am a losing bettor and am doing this for fun. I am hijacking MTTR's thread for the sole reason that I agreed with him on a pick last week and we lost, so this is his punishment [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice Northwestern pick. I made a bit on that one too. I also flamed out with BC and used the same line of thinking you did.

Congrats to Penn St...they've finally won me over and I bow before their supremacy. I only wish I would've caved 6 weeks ago. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] They better not blow it against the Spartans, because I don't want to listen to the Buckeye stuff again.

BTW-Illinois is that bad.

[ QUOTE ]
apologies to all...
Why did Michigan State not try to throw the ball the whole game?
Actually, Purdue owned that game by more than the score. I broke my rule of never betting on Jekyll&Hyde...I mean Michigan State.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh, I just wonder what could have been if Purdue played like this all year. The D played very well, and like you said this game was not as close as the final score. If not for that fluke double fumble return at the end of the half, Purdue probably wins by 14+. In any event, I was proud the way Purdue came back after that play with no bowl to play for to still win.

P.S. No need to apologize for posting wrong picks. Even the best handicappers would be apologizing more than 40% of the time. The Big Ten is very unpredictable, and also underrated in my opinion this year.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
apologies to all...
Why did Michigan State not try to throw the ball the whole game?
Actually, Purdue owned that game by more than the score. I broke my rule of never betting on Jekyll&Hyde...I mean Michigan State.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not your fault, I have a bad habit of making good things come to an end.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
Sigh, I just wonder what could have been if Purdue played like this all year.

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel like an idiot for almost laying money on the 60 to 1 for Purdue on the National Title. I am mistified by the complete breakdown of the D this year. The Illinois and Indiana games could lead to some momentum for next year.

It seemed to me that Charlie Weis showed everyone the blueprint how to abuse our D. The Minnesota game was the only loss before that, and that was in double OT. After the ND debacle, our coaches were slow to stop the bleeding. In a way, this year has been less painful than the horrible luck Purdue has been snakebitten by in the past. It will be interesting where they set the line when your Illini come to town next week.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Purdue -12.5 is my guess....cannot wait to find out