River play, heads up, OOP

[cold_cash]

This isn't a super exciting hand but I'll bet it's a spot we find ourselves in quite a bit, and I thought it might be good to get the wheels turning a little bit.


UTG is a decent player, but he plays too tightly and doesn't raise enough before the flop, especially in a shorthanded game.

(I hate putting up stats but he's about a 15/8 guy, ~30% WTSD, 200 hands or so. He seems very agressive after the flop, however.)

The scene: Online, 6-handed.

UTG raises, everyone folds, I 3-bet J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] from the BB, UTG calls.

Heads up, 6 small bets.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet, UTG calls.

Heads up, 4 big bets.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet, UTG calls.

Heads up, 6 big bets.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]


What's my best play on the river?

[MrWookie47]

I think you bet. A high and smaller pairs will call you more times than he has a Q. But is this guy aggressive enough to bet more than those when checked to? I'm still leaning towards a bet. I don't think he raises the river often enough with something that doesn't beat Qx, so we can fold to a raise.

[milesdyson]

if you check, he may not bet 99/TT/AK, but if you bet he will call with them - maybe not AK, but you get the point.

i really don't like check calling against guys who are prone to be passive (edit: missed the "very aggressive" part - it doesn't change my mind. i'd need you to tell me you've seen him bet very poor hands when checked to).

if he's been slowplaying AA/KK/QQ and he plans to raise the river, i am folding anyway. if i check and call, i still think he doesn't bet some hands that he would call with. i always want one bet to go in here, and i'd rather bet and have him call than check and have him bet.

[detruncate]

I routinely check/call here vs a "very aggressive" post flop player.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
i really don't like check calling against guys who are prone to be passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
He seems very agressive after the flop, however.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah these are really tough spots. I think in this case I probably bet/fold, hoping to get a call from AK or AJ or a PP smaller than yours. This changes if you think he can raise the river with a hand that you beat. Probably then I c/c or bet/call if he is bluff raising a lot.

I'd bet the river and pray he wasn't sandbagging and then raises you. He may have been chasing overcards and you hope he'd fold to the river bet.

If he is that tight though I wouldn't be surprised if he showed you a pocket pair 10 or higher. (EDIT: 10's or JJ since he didn't cap pf.)

I'd be weary of 3-betting pf in the BB because you're first to act on the rest of the betting rounds. But since you did I'd bet to the river.

[cold_cash]

I'm fairly confident he would bet the river with any pair he deemed good enough to raise with pre-flop.

In other words, I would expect him to bet JJ-88 a vast majority of the time, and AK much of the time as well, though not as often.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly confident he would bet the river with any pair he deemed good enough to raise with pre-flop.

In other words, I would expect him to bet JJ-88 a vast majority of the time, and AK much of the time as well, though not as often.

[/ QUOTE ]
this is a very easy check/call then.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly confident he would bet the river with any pair he deemed good enough to raise with pre-flop.

In other words, I would expect him to bet JJ-88 a vast majority of the time, and AK much of the time as well, though not as often.

[/ QUOTE ]

You gotta tells us this stuff in the OP, b/c what it really comes down to what you mean by aggressive post flop: does he bluff raise? Is he going to bet JJ or AK when checked to, etc.