LO8 non-nut flush draw to a raise

[Webster]

I can't retrieve the hand - HOWEVER.

I have a King Hi flush draw. There will be a low hand and there is a bet AND raise in front of me.

This is a fold isn't it? I'm on a non-nut draw calling 2 bets for a split pot.

[lautzutao]

fold.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold isn't it? I'm on a non-nut draw calling 2 bets for a split pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Webster - Yes. Fold.

Hard to say for absolute sure without knowing more. But let’s say you’re playing in a single blind game and see the flop from the button for a slightly reduced price (since the jackpot collection is taken from the button) holding
2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] after five limpers and BB checks (as expected). So a total of seven of you see the flop for one small bet.

You had a marginal hand to begin with, but since you were on the button and this particular group of customers includes several players who chase, you decided to see the flop. Then let’s say the flop is
2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. And let’s say the player in position #1 (big blind) bets, is called by the next four players, and the player in the #6 position (cut off) raises. And let’s say you fully expect the others to simply call the raise. Thus you’re faced with paying two small bets and you expect six opponents will see the turn - and any one of them (or maybe none of them) could have the nut flush draw. Let’s say that’s the situation as you perceive it.

Here’s the sims result for high hands for Hero (Wilson, 10000 trials, six non-folding opponents with random cards):
You make
• 2210 winning flushes and 1311 losing flushes. You also make
• 201 winning back-door full houses and 73 losing back-door full houses,
• 6 winning back-door quads,
• 60 winning trips (but 254 losing trips), and
• 217 winning two pairs (but 3767 losing two pairs).
• Sometimes you’ll end up with a winning “emergency” low, but I’m not going to consider that.

Your trips must be trip deuces and since you lose with them more than 4 times as often as you win, I think you’re probably folding all the trip deuces to a bet, although maybe you bet them on the river yourself if nobody bets into you, depending. Similarly, two pairs lose for you overwhelmingly, so you’re probably folding two pairs to a bet on the river, and probably checking them on the river if nobody bets into you.

But I think you’ll generally want to be playing your quads, full houses, and flushes. If so, you’ll end up with about 2417 winning hands and 1384 losing hands for the showdown, a total of about 3801 hands for the showdown. You’ll fold the other 6199 hands on the river. Well, wait.... you’ll fold some of them before that if the board pairs with sevens or eights on the turn. From your perspective, 6/45 of the turns will be pairing sevens or eights and you’ll fold all of those. You figure to make slightly more than half (10/19) of your flushes on the turn
the math for the 10/19:
36 both,
9*36 turn, no river
9*36 river, no turn
But of the flushes you make on the river, let’s take away 6/45.
some more math:
39/45*10/19*2210 = 1008 winning flushes
39/45*10/19*1311 = 598 losing flushes.

6/45*10000 = 1333 total folds on turn.

Adjusted for your folding on the turn (after the board pairs with sevens or eights), if you decide to play after this flop, I think, starting from the point where you’re confronted with the two small bets after the flop, you’ll:
• 1333 fold on turn (and lose 2 small bets),
• 1215 win half the pot on the river (and win maybe 15 small bets as your half-pot share)
• 671 lose on the river (cost to you maybe 6 small bets)
• 6781 fold on the river (cost to you maybe 4 small bets)
some math for the above:1008+201+6 = 1215
598+73 = 671
10000-1333-1215-671 = 6781

That’s figured for passive play (no raises) and chasers on the third and fourth betting rounds, and no more raises on the second betting round. I think that’s about as favorable as you can expect, maybe too rosy for some groups of opponents. I’ve purposely made it rosy because I think calling a double bet on the flop, even if we make it rosy, is a loser for you. I haven’t computed yet. Let’s do that now:
-2*1333+15*1215-6*671-4*6781 =
-2666+18225-4026-27124 = -15591 small bets in 10000 trials.
The total here is negative which means to me that even if we paint a fairly rosy scenario after the flop, with nobody raising and most opponents calling a single bet all the way to the showdown, drawing to the 2nd nut flush when that’s mostly all you have has a negative expectation.

That’s what my gut feeling was, but I did check it out with a simulation and some reasoning. Never a guarantee about my math, but as a result of it, I think you should not draw to the 2nd nut flush after the flop if that’s mostly all you have, and if low is already possible (3 low cards on flop), or even if low is probable (2 low cards on flop).

If low was not possible, it looks like (without refiguring) you’d have a favorable draw. But that’s in a very passive setting with lots of chasers - probably not very realistic.

Plus Lao Tzu Tao recommends folding and in this forum, up to this point, at least, has given advice that is right on.

Bottom line: Fold.

Buzz

[Webster]

Step away from the coffee!