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  #11  
Old 09-30-2005, 01:33 PM
Slacker13 Slacker13 is offline
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Default Re: Going against the public

[ QUOTE ]
And you'd be going to jail for it, too.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would i go to jail? Is their a governing body overseeing sportsbooks that i am unaware of? This isn't stock market.
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  #12  
Old 09-30-2005, 01:35 PM
prk prk is offline
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Default Re: Going against the public

What I mean is that when a line is moving closer to game time, the juice usually moves with it. For example, let's say that before the last 2 monday night football games, I liked the under, the public liked the OVER. The book moved the line DOWN and moved the juice up on the UNDER, making it look more appealing for the bettors to take the over. Less juice, lower number.

If you watch the movements and fade them, so far this season im around 20-8. I've posted before about how I use ESPN Fantasy's PigSkin Pick'EM concensus charts to show who all of their 40,000 or so participants are picking AGAINST THE SPREAD. They also show them straight up.
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  #13  
Old 09-30-2005, 01:46 PM
Slacker13 Slacker13 is offline
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Default Re: Going against the public

First let me explain what I mean when I say movement. My definition of line move is a bit different because I pay for Don Best Premium which does all the work for me. My DB voice announces major line moves. Their definition of a major line move is when $100,000 or more comes in at the same time to 5 or more casinos on the same game. So unless i hear that voice tell me it is a line move then in my eyes there is no line move. What your speaking about is adjustments in the line that haapen quite often but don't necesarily mean anything except that in your example they may mean something and that goes back to my other post about looking for the sportsbook baiting the action.
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  #14  
Old 09-30-2005, 01:55 PM
whipsaw whipsaw is offline
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Default Re: Going against the public

[ QUOTE ]
Why would i go to jail? Is their a governing body overseeing sportsbooks that i am unaware of? This isn't stock market.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some people might consider calling your competitors and agreeing on a specific line to be price fixing, which is a criminal antitrust violation.
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  #15  
Old 09-30-2005, 01:58 PM
Slacker13 Slacker13 is offline
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Default Re: Going against the public

Since I have never read any of your posts, and have not got a fix on your humor i will assume you are joking. Although their was not a smilly moticon thing at the end so I am not sure.
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  #16  
Old 09-30-2005, 02:04 PM
whipsaw whipsaw is offline
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Default Re: Going against the public

[ QUOTE ]
Since I have never read any of your posts, and have not got a fix on your humor i will assume you are joking. Although their was not a smilly moticon thing at the end so I am not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely not joking, not sure why you would think I was. What if I changed a few of the words in your original post:

[ QUOTE ]
I have heard and i honestly do not know if it is true or not but i have heard that the casinos communicate with one another and will select certain dates to raise prices on rooms to make money for the casinos. Like i said i dont know if it true but why wouldn't they? I would if i owned a casino.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's the difference between fixing prices on a game or a hotel room?
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  #17  
Old 09-30-2005, 02:48 PM
Slacker13 Slacker13 is offline
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Default Re: Going against the public

You are in contention for the homer trophy.
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  #18  
Old 09-30-2005, 03:01 PM
Slacker13 Slacker13 is offline
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Default Re: Going against the public

Let me explain something. This is sports betting with sportsbooks that can do whatever they like. By adjusting the line to bait the public they are in a sense expressing an opinion on who they think will win that game and take a gamble that they can bait the public to go with the loser. They are not fixing games, that would in fact be illegal. Your argument is completely sensless and IMO if your this blind to what they can and most likely will do then continue betting the favorites and learn nothing from what i have said. Do you think every sportsbook sets their own lines? The answer is no. Someone is hired and paid extremely well to set the opening line. If that person knows so much that he is able to set a las vegas/offshore betting line then that person has a lot of knowledge about sports, betting and setting lines. With that said do you really think that person does not have an advantage? Is it not his job to make the casinos money? It seems very logical that what i am saying is true. And I can tell you that I think it happens, it makes perfect sense and it is most definately not illegal. It has nothing to do with setting prices on hotels which is probably the silliest argument you could make.
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  #19  
Old 09-30-2005, 03:02 PM
Webster Webster is offline
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Default Re: Going against the public

mrbaseball - remember - I'm talking about parlay cards from bars where the local guy sets a point spread and he is stuck with it.

For instance - "A" vs. "B" A is -3 on Monday and by the time friday coems around all the major online books have the game at "A" -1.5. This would be a play on "B" +3.

I figured that the card was the dumb money spreads and by the time Friday came around and injuries and so forth took effect the smart money had tweaked the line. The problem was getting 2 or more plays where their was a big enough difference.
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  #20  
Old 09-30-2005, 03:10 PM
whipsaw whipsaw is offline
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Default Re: Going against the public

[ QUOTE ]
Let me explain something. This is sports betting with sportsbooks that can do whatever they like. By adjusting the line to bait the public they are in a sense expressing an opinion on who they think will win that game and take a gamble that they can bait the public to go with the loser. They are not fixing games, that would in fact be illegal. Your argument is completely sensless and IMO if your this blind to what they can and most likely will do then continue betting the favorites and learn nothing from what i have said. Do you think every sportsbook sets their own lines? The answer is no. Someone is hired and paid extremely well to set the opening line. If that person knows so much that he is able to set a las vegas/offshore betting line then that person has a lot of knowledge about sports, betting and setting lines. With that said do you really think that person does not have an advantage? Is it not his job to make the casinos money? It seems very logical that what i am saying is true. And I can tell you that I think it happens, it makes perfect sense and it is most definately not illegal. It has nothing to do with setting prices on hotels which is probably the silliest argument you could make.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, chill dude. I never said it was illegal for books to set a line that has an advantage over the public. That's their job. I was simply responding to the notion that sportsbooks call each other up and agree on a line. Agreeing on a price with your competitors is indeed a crime, regardless of whether it's basketballs, shoes, maid services, or in this case, gambling.
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