UM... huh? ps 10/20 deep

[mgsimpleton]

[ QUOTE ]
im thinking you'll find AcJx here more than anything else. id call and hate it.


[/ QUOTE ]

I would think AcJx would be unlikely unless we're assuming this is never a bluff and hero can call with less than a flush. I mean, how often does a flush fold to this ridiculous overbet? Not very often. How often does something other than a flush call? I'd say not very often...

to me, it seems like AcJx would be unwise for playing it like this, as he basically folds worse hands/makes better hands call. If AcJx is up against a set itmakes no difference that he has the Ac... the redraw only helps against a flush, but if he thinks hero likely has a flush he wouldn't make this move with AcJx. So while I think it is well within the range that he has the Ac, i wouldn't give him such a good made hand. If he does have AJ, which is possible, I would say it's AJ WITHOUT the Ac, doesn't that make more sense???

As for the hand, given you smooth called the flop with your flush, I don't think he gives you cred for the flush, especially if he does have the Ac... I would think I'm calling, but just because I'm confused and also a fish who calls too much.

[tdarko]

FWIW, i put him on AcJx/AxJc and you probably call and reload.

After losing lots of money on monotone flops in the past, my current deal is just to keep the pot reasonable unless you have the nuts or a razor sharp read...

The core issues are:
1) there is nothing sneaky-good about an 8-high flush
2) he is a very good player making a monstrous overbet
3) monotone flops are easy to mis-judge if you don't have the nuts..
4) the size of the bet relative to the pot indicates to me serious problems

Enough said, fold and find a better spot...

[CamelZoo]

what percent of the time do you think you are ahead here?



let's assume you are ahead on the turn 70% of the time here, putting him on a set or higher [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. the other 30% of the time you're drawing dead to a better flush.

30% x (-$5500) = -$1650

70% x (+$3603) = +$2522

EV = +$872

If you add 2 pair and lower into his hand range your EV will obviously increase accordingly. In the heat of the moment though it's tough to call this push, thinking that you're ahead of such an overbet even more than 50% of the time, so yea basically it comes down to your read.

Peace.

[CamelZoo]

This post reminded me of a hand I folded/observed in June, same game:

MP raises to 70
LP calls
All others fold

Flop (170) = 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Check
Check

Turn (170) = Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
MP bets 75
LP is all in for 2254.80
MP calls

River (4786.6) = 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

MP shows Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
LP scoops with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Similar situation for yours except the raise pf. LP had been lagging it up perfectly for situations like this one. Thus my trepidation to calling these massive all ins, and my leaning towards folding your hand (unless you think you're ahead ~60%+ of the time)

Results?

what was the result of this hand anyway?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
im thinking you'll find AcJx here more than anything else. id call and hate it.


[/ QUOTE ]

If AcJx is up against a set itmakes no difference that he has the Ac... the redraw only helps against a flush, but if he thinks hero likely has a flush he wouldn't make this move with AcJx.


[/ QUOTE ]

How can the redraw only help against the flush?
If this guy has the ability to risk killing action with the AJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to preserve his image, vomit and pay him off. Otherwise call, vomit, close eyes, and pray that you hold up in the likely chance that he doesnt hold Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

He holds the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] IMO:

A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

a set is possible but I think there is a very solid chance he holds A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]...

[HoldEmKillah]

[ QUOTE ]
what was the result of this hand anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[durrrr]

I folded, I talked this hand over a lot with 2 people who know villian fairly well and they were both undecided too... The table was playing very aggressively (because of bbuddy) People were playing too aggressively towards non-bbuddy opponents, and villain knew this, i think he was hoping that i would give out too much action as many other people were doing, however as i said i still am not sure that i made the right fold because he could have been doing this w/ Ac Jx hoping i would call w/ j9 or kk etc. After tons of reflection on this hand, i still have no idea what the correct line was. Craze occasionally posts here, i respect his game very much, and i would be very interested to see his thoughts on this hand. I was, and still am, baffled as to what my action should be.

Btw. the preflop call was because bbuddy had 5k behind too at this table... and he apparently assumed that any tp+ of his was always good (since he was allin evry 3rd hand w/ 28o), so it was definitely a +ev call preflop, and even w/o him i mightve calld (sc w/ 300x bb behind and position is a nice spot).