From ZeeJustin's web site...steal into KJ8 board? - Page 2

Sponger15SB · #11 07-31-2005, 06:01 PM

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curtains,

i believe sponger was saying that reading the entry is -ev in general, not that posting it was.

citanul

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huh? ok can I just clarify...

I think its -EV for justin to be posting about a bluff that he makes with nothing. He is basically now setting himself up for possible traps by everyone that reads his blog. Which I'm guessing a few people do who regularly play against him.

citanul · #12 07-31-2005, 06:03 PM

Praying,

Harrington touches on this idea though also, and I'm wondering what you think:

He says that the more aggressive the opponent is, the more wary you should be about their check on the flop here. Basically, an aggressive opponent is betting everything, and well, your 99 might even be worth a value raise here, but a predictable weak tighty guy, you should probably be less wary of their check because they are checking flops they miss.

Clearly both people have the ability to mix it up (although sometimes not, sometimes in their super aggressiveness or their weak-tightishness, they become so predictable they don't even mix up their style) but these factors seem to overwhelm the others.

citanul

rydazzle · #13 07-31-2005, 06:07 PM

yikes. you must think Im an idiot...I am well aware of everything you said.

my question is about KJ8 texture specifically and why it has a characteristic ZJ alludes to.

rydazzle · #14 07-31-2005, 06:09 PM

It is from this text exactly that I draw my waryness from a check on KJ8. An agressive player should cont bet here IMO.

raptor517 · #15 07-31-2005, 06:09 PM

this IS a standard play. most of you prolly dont play mtts that much, but to win them, you have to pick up pots like this. very standard mtt play imo. in sngs i dont get too fancy though.. holla

PrayingMantis · #16 07-31-2005, 06:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
huh? ok can I just clarify...

I think its -EV for justin to be posting about a bluff that he makes with nothing. He is basically now setting himself up for possible traps by everyone that reads his blog. Which I'm guessing a few people do who regularly play against him.

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Come on. This is not different than any player who has a reputation of being aggressive. What would you expect will happen? people will start CHECKING to him more? That's the best thing that can heppen to a player.

I think you are way overestimating how -EV it is for ZJ to post these thoughts. Most of them are simply good solid poker thinking, not some extremely valueable secrets about how he thinks and acts in every situation. You can be sure ZJ still keeps a lot to himself, as any good poker player should do.

citanul · #17 07-31-2005, 06:12 PM

ry,

Praying answered your question pretty well.

Basically a flop like that most people who hit are going to bet. Why? Because amongst other things, you'll get action from lots of 2nd best hands on that kind of board, it's got 2 face cards = draw heavy, you raised preflop = you should bet again usually if you've got anything at all, etc.

I think also that your number of hands you're putting a tricky opponent on as villain here post flop as a predictable hero is too tight. I'm guessing that against the right opponent, Z's going to play lots more hands than that.

But the dominant factor here is that Z's not trying to push the guy off a better hand, so it's not all that important what his opponent puts him on after his call and then bet. He's pretty sure his 99 is the best hand. So he's value betting.

Them's the breaks of being too predictable.

citanul

rydazzle · #18 07-31-2005, 06:13 PM

u dont see any warning lights here to bet 1/2 pot instead of 2/3? Would a competant player who checked this board knowing that the follow-up move from ZJ was so standard check here? I guess I am missing why KJ8 is scary to PFR...

rydazzle · #19 07-31-2005, 06:14 PM

excellent, this is the content I was looking for...thx

citanul · #20 07-31-2005, 06:14 PM

ry,

he didn't say that his opponent is aggressive did he? he just said the guy opened. if his opponent was very aggressive i'm going to guess the likelihood he repops this preflop goes way up. my guess is that the reason z called this bet preflop is a) he'd love to hit a set and win a big pot b) he's comfortable playing post flop against this opponent.

where comfortable means "i'll know real quick if my 99 is best post flop, so i don't need a set to win the hand."

citanul