My Prediction For The Trading Competition

[James Boston]

I'm going to lose so badly. I realized while planning, I have no clue how to generate a 3 month return. I have many picks that would be fine value investments, but not inside of 3 months. But, I'm doing this for fun so I don't care.

[Dan Mezick]

Trading usually employs a "technical" approach to markets (acting on patterns of price, volume, time) rather than the "fundamental" approach typical of longer-term "investors" (acting on EBITDA, balance sheets, PE, news).

Regarding news. Often the price and volume over time reflects the news, well in advance of the actual release of news. Traders tuned into price, volume and time often find that most "surprise" news tends to work in their favor. This may be because technical traders trust price, volume and time patterns to tell them everything they need to know about the probabilities of pending price moves.

The works of John Murphy are a good place to start learning about price, volume and time.
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications (Hardcover)
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[tek]

I view TA as cowboys in the west putting their ear to the ground to hear advancing hoof beats...

[Dan Mezick]

Tek,

Regardless of methods and beliefs about trading, I hope you consider participating starting July 5.

[tek]

Clarification of previous post. I using techmical analysis, hence my name tek (teknlysis in the contest).

Dan, I believe I was the first one to sign up...

[Dan Mezick]

OK! Alot of observers think TA is voodoo. I'll check your positions.

[savman]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to lose so badly. I realized while planning, I have no clue how to generate a 3 month return. I have many picks that would be fine value investments, but not inside of 3 months. But, I'm doing this for fun so I don't care.

[/ QUOTE ]

If by losing badly you mean last place, have no fear. I already have dibbs on last. Are we going to be discussing trades while the competition is underway or after? For me, I am using this as a learning tool, and will be happy if i break even. What i mean to say is I am sure breaking even wouldnt be hard, but playing to win should obviously increase the risk; therefore, dont be surprised if I am the only loser.

[Sniper]

Technical Analysis is certainly not voodoo. Alot of Wall Street dollars move based on technical factors.

In a nutshell, technical analysis relies on past price action to predict future potential price action.

Calling technical analysis voodoo, is the same as saying using +EV hand data to select starting hands in poker is voodoo since any two cards can win. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling technical analysis voodoo, is the same as saying using +EV hand data to select starting hands in poker is voodoo since any two cards can win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you have any links to or any titles of studies that prove "technical analysis" can beat the S&P 500 returns over a prolonged period of time? They would be much appreciated. For instance, in Murphy's book, does he provide data that show's that his system(s) generate buy and sell signals that when employed will out perform the S&P 500?

[Sniper]

I've read alot of books on trading, but Murphy's isn't one of them, so can't comment on what he talks about.

Here's a link to an article that talks about "studies"...
http://www.geocities.com/t_ride9/technical.html
(disclaimer: I have nothing to do with this site, just pulled it off an internet search, you could find others of interest by doing a similar search)

My own experience is that technical analysis works for traders.