On the bubble, tied for chip lead, fold AKs to all-in...

[rydazzle]

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Even if I change the chip counts to 2500/2500/2000/1000 it's still a fold against a raise with any 2.

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I think this distribution changes things, for me at least. Here the 4th player has 1000, not quite dead, where in my example the 4th player had about 2.5x BB.

I may have called in this situation...

[rydazzle]

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I haven't read this yet, but this is one of the easiest folds you can make. Read HOH again, it's in there.

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You must be alluding to vol II? The multi-table qualifier where he advised to fold AA? Slightly more black and white in his example (playing for entry, not staggered payouts) but in the same vein for sure.

[felson]

Haven't read the other replies. This is a toughie. I assume you haven't seen SB make moves like this in the last 10 min -- if so, then you have got to think you are way ahead here.

I think your equity against non-pair hands is way above 63%. You'll dominate him in many cases, so probably your equity is closer to 70%. And I don't think he has a pair even half the time here.

It's hard for me to imagine that you are anything worse than a coinflip here, and you will usually be way ahead. SB pushes with nothing here pretty often I think. I know I would.

I assume the prize payout scheme is 50%/30%/20%, yes? If you fold, your real money equity is probably ~30%, maybe a little higher. If you call and win, 40% of the time you will have zero. 60% (my estimate) of the time you double up and will usually take first, so your real money equity is ~45% I am guessing. On the average, your real money equity if you call is .6 * .45 = 27%. This argues for a fold.

I guess it's a fold then. I hate it, but it seems like you can wait for a smaller stack to bust first.

[Moonsugar]

Some things on ICM:

It is not just a ratio of stack sizes. It is the equity in the prize pool that the stack sizes should have, according to theory (in all of its limitations). You can never have an equity in the prize pool greater than the top prize, in this case 50%.



ICM Calculator is useful...

But this tool is more useful.

[multifast1]

Moonsugar, thanks! I just could fiure where the disconnect was between my straight-up ICM calculations and what SnG PT was reporting. That does make a little more sense now but I still have a hard time thinking it's that big a difference. I guess I'll fork out the money for SnG PT and mess with it more in depth myself. I hate just reading off the numbers a program spits out without understanding the logic behind it. Thanks again.