On the bubble, tied for chip lead, fold AKs to all-in...

[ace_in_the_hole]

If your playing for first I don't think you can lay this down. I call and get shown AQ/AJ/KQs if your going for 8% ROI then fold but if your shooting for an ROI above 12% you gotta make this call. IMHO.

[ace_in_the_hole]

To add on...
Put yourself in SB positon he is probably pushing a decent hand and praying that you don't wake up to AK/AA/KK.

[rydazzle]

Thanks for the comments

I had no reason to think this guy was pushing with anything less than premium. He was playing pretty tight along with the rest of us, inlcuding folding to some SB v BB raises by me. I just felt this was really bizarre and out of place, wasnt willing to pay my entire stack to find out what the heck he was doing.

...for bubble play, is it worth risking 2500 to gain 300? Maybe against a small stack, but here he knows that this could cost him the tournament. Maybe this was a play with AA designed to look like a steal?

As far as EV goes, this is a tough one. I call and lose (about 45%-65%) I finish with -buyin. I call and win, I get tons o chips and a great chance at 1 spot. I fold, then I still remain about tied for chip lead with a good chance at 1 spot.

I finshed first in the tournament, maybe this is why I can live with my decision... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[rydazzle]

Asks the noob, "what's FYP?"

[Slim Pickens]

Fixed your post. I took out the word "even." Any two is a fold, only premium is a fold, but there's a range in the middle where you should call.

[multifast1]

Good job finishing the toruney out in 1st. Some things I'd take into account too was how tightly he was playing prior with big blinds (also keeping in mind that this type of player is more likely to make push/fold moves!) and the buy-in amount. I doubt someone at the $5-$30 tables is going try and "disguise" an AA with an all-in that will only be called by AA or KK. Based on what you said now I'd put him on 88-QQ or even AK.

Good topic and maybe it isn't as "easy" of a call as I thought...

[rydazzle]

[ QUOTE ]
To add on...
Put yourself in SB positon he is probably pushing a decent hand and praying that you don't wake up to AK/AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did put myself in SB position, he was playing tight - this is mostly why I folded. I would guess JJ if I had a gun to my head, doesnt want a call but maybe a coin flip is he does. Do I want a coin flip on the bubble tied for the chip lead? Personally, I dont.

It is entirely different if SB was playing aggressively, but I had no evidence to give this much weight.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
If your playing for first I don't think you can lay this down. I call and get shown AQ/AJ/KQs if your going for 8% ROI then fold but if your shooting for an ROI above 12% you gotta make this call. IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a matter of "playing for first" or any other such crap. If you told me my opponent had AQ/AJ/KQs, of course I call. If you told me he was pushing any two, I fold.

[Ixnert]

At a quick guess, a call here costs you about half a buyin on average if he's really pushing any two. (Assuming about a 70/20/10 distribution of finishes if you call and win, which may be slightly conservative, but I don't think too much; and a 35/40/20/5 distribution if you simply fold.) This seems large enough that I'd have to be pretty convinced that SB was indeed not pushing premiums and not pushing any two, but *was* pushing medium (and likely dominated) hands to risk it.

[multifast1]

AKs v. Ax = ~75% win
AKs v. any two = ~66% win
AKs v. pp (other than AA/KK) = ~46%

Is the difference between villian having a dominated Ax/Kx hand and a "any two" hand that significant to make a difference between call or fold?