On the bubble, tied for chip lead, fold AKs to all-in...

[rydazzle]

SnG, 4 players left, blinds at 100/200

*approx* chip count:
Hero ~ 2500
SB ~ 2500
B ~ 1500
UTG ~ 500

Folds around to SB who goes all-in. I have A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in my hand. At this point I am not sure why this guy wants to get mixed up with the only other stack that can eliminate him (or if he's capable of that kind of thought). The table has been generally tight since we've been down to 4 players. My guess is JJ/QQ, but who knows, he could be as foolish/aggressive as 55-88. If he has a monster, would he play it like this?

I decide to fold, since there is a good chance I am an underdog and I don't want to risk an ITM. I did some hand analysis after the tourney was over and feel pretty good about the decision. Whats my chance of finishing ITM if I call? Say I start conservatively (in my favor) and give my opponent a 60% chance of a high pair and 40% of just some high connecters:

(define P(hand) as prob of beating "hand")

.6*P(high pair) + .4*P(big connectors) = .6(46%) + .4(63%) = 52.8%

Ok! 52.8% chance of winning the showdown, which is 47.2% chance of finishing not ITM. Keep in mind here there could be a higher chance he's on a high pair, or that he could be bluffing...but bluff the big stack with 300 in the pot? I doubt it.

So I have *roughly* a 45% chance of finishing out of the money if I call...If I fold, I feel my chances of getting that 500 chip guy out of the way is way better than 50%.

comments please.

R

[kyro]

Without checking your math, I fold too. UTG is about to be gone, and you'd really hate to run into a pocket pair here.

[rydazzle]

Is the lackluster due to this being an easy call in this spot?

[Slim Pickens]

My $0.02 is this: If I'm SB, I'm pushing with all sorts of crap here. Pretty much any two. Why? I want the chip lead. I want to work the bubble, and I can't do that if you're on my left with more chips. The fact that you're folding AKs demonstrates why this is a good idea. If you feel like wagering your buy-in that SB is any good, call. If you think he's no good, fold.

SlimP

[burgi]

I would call this as well. I don't just want to finish ITM, I want to win this thing!
There are not many hands that are better than AK preflop or against which you are not a race! I would call in a heartbeat and if he beats you, oh well.
Should you win the hand, you will have about T5000 and are a clear favorite to win this thing!
But that's just me!

[Slim Pickens]

Let me just clarify, you should only call if you can, with a fair degree of certainty, put him on a range that includes a lot of hands with aces and kings in them. You must have him dominated most of the time to make this a good call.

SlimP

[multifast1]

Easy call for me. You're at worst a slight underdog to any pair (can't imagine he'd play KK or AA like that!) Against any other hand you're a slight favorite to a dominating position (against Ax or Kx). If you call, you're ITM is determined directly by that percentage since you're both even stacked going in... and overall I gotta believe that's a +EV situation to call.

AND you've neglected the fact that if you call and win, you're not only guaranteed ITM, but you'll have a dominating chip lead and have a a better overall cashing value (more 1st and 2nd finishes than if you fold).

Edit: After writing this, I curious how many people have been knocked out more times on the bubble by pushing with "any two" on the button or SB and getting called than they have by actually calling with a good or premium hand when someone is making a steal move on them? I know i've lost more on the former than the latter...

[the_joker]

Easy fold even if he's pushing any 2.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold if he's pushing any 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[Slim Pickens]

OK. I'm making some contradictory statements so I'll clarify.

If your opponent is pushing absolutely any two, it is an easy fold. If your opponent is pushing a wide range of typical 2+2 garbage pushing hands like Ax, Kx, Qxs, suited connectors, you might consider calling. If your opponent is pushing Ax, Kx, and PP's, call. If your opponent is pushing only good hands, fold.

This is why I have my specialty pushing range that includes only crap hands to avoid being dominated by the typical range of calling hands.

SlimP