Taiwan

[Stu Pidasso]

Yeah I know its a pretty useless poll but humor me anyways.

[JackWhite]

Maybe I am naive, but it would strike me as beyond ridiculous for China to attack Taiwan. Communist governments are capable of doing anything, but in the last few years, China has been focusing so much on economic development and the Olympics. If they launch a military attack on Taiwan, everything they have worked for would be in jeopardy.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

Use 10 years to build international goodwill to try to become the world most powerful nation to blow it all off on a Taiwan attack?

Nope. Would be completely senseless.

I read some military analysis that said that China would be chanceless due to lack of fleet and precision weapons. As the world picture looks now US' power will gradually evaporate and thus its efforts to defend Taiwan will probably be downsized significantly and finally China will pressure Taiwan into uniting in some kind of deal. 3-5 years is way too short time perspective for that though.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I am naive, but it would strike me as beyond ridiculous for China to attack Taiwan. Communist governments are capable of doing anything, but in the last few years, China has been focusing so much on economic development and the Olympics. If they launch a military attack on Taiwan, everything they have worked for would be in jeopardy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny after all that one president in a democratic country blew away 50 years of image and goodwill building in 4 years and then got reelected.

[lehighguy]

Change the poll to 20-30 years form now and my responses are:

1) Yes
2) No
3) China

[Arnfinn Madsen]

But do you actually think they will attack? After US backs off, it should be quite easy for them to pressure Taiwan into some kind of Hong Kong-model.

[Felix_Nietsche]

.....there would be war.

Unless a Democrat is president in which case they would find a way to break they treaty.

[shots]

The poll is flawed because the question 2 answer determines the relevency of the question 3 answer. Having said that
NO
NO
China

But the second one is only a no because of the word actively

[sam h]

The first question makes the others moot because the answer is an easy no. It's just BS and sabre-rattling for now.

[lehighguy]

I don't think an attack is a given. I do think they will take control in the next 50 years. Perhaps by forcing them through the threat of war. That is the most likely scenerio. My friends from Taiwan don't really want this to happen, but it seems like it will. If that doesn't work the Chinese will invade, though I'm sure they'll come up with some bullshit reason for it and try to sell that internationally. I give 75% chance US will backdown and let them get taken over.